关键词: 秋风, 秋风, 水稻, 评估模型

Abstract: In order to study the impacts of climate change on winter wheat growth, the author used the winter wheat growth observation data and climatic factors data of consecutive 33 years (1981-2013) in the east of Gansu Province, took linear regression, polynomial function, climate tendency rate and other methods to analyze the impacts of climate change on winter wheat. The results showed that in the growth period of winter wheat of the past 33 years, the average temperature increased significantly, climate tendency rate was 0.75℃/ 10 a; effective accumulated temperature rose, climate tendency rate was 45.79℃/10 a; total precipitation decreased, the climate tendency rate was -29.17 mm/10 a; sunshine duration increased, climate tendency rate was 25.75 h/10 a. Climate change postponed sowing and wintering of wheat, brought ahead turning green, jointing, heading and mature time, shorted the whole growth period of winter wheat, the tendency rate was - 6.669 d/10 a; plant height decreased; plant density and trefoil stage increased, the development period reduced, tiller number and tiller number; overwintering mortality decreased; the rate of sterile spikelet decreased, grain number, 1000 grain weight, spike rate increased acres. Climate yield of winter wheat in loess plateau region of east Gansu in 1981-2013 had a tendency of increase, yield and growth period of climate was negatively correlated with average temperature, precipitation, accumulated temperature and sunshine hours were positively correlated, the shortage of water resources was the restricting factor of winter wheat growth in east of Gansu Province, the temperature was the key factor to affect the yield of winter wheat.