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中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (34): 160-164.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-1293

所属专题: 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

辽宁沿海大风天气学分型及预报指标初探

梁 寒1,黄 阁1,盛 永2,吴曼丽1,张宁娜1   

  1. 1沈阳中心气象台,沈阳 110016;2辽宁省气象局,沈阳 110015)
  • 收稿日期:2014-05-05 修回日期:2014-05-05 接受日期:2014-08-06 出版日期:2015-03-10 发布日期:2015-03-10
  • 通讯作者: 黄阁
  • 基金资助:
    公益性行业专项“黄渤海高影响天气预报中的关键技术研究”(GYHY201106006);气象关键技术集成与应用(面上)项目“黄海、渤海海上大风预报关键技术集成与应用”(CMAGJ2013M10)。

Preliminary Study on the Classification of Synoptical Meteorology and Prediction Index of
Gale Weather off the Coast of Liaoning

Liang Han1, Huang Ge1, Sheng Yong2, Wu Manli1, Zhang Ningna1   

  1. (1Shenyang Center Meteorological Observatory, Shenyang 110016; 2Liaoning Province Meteorological Bureau, Shenyang 110015)
  • Received:2014-05-05 Revised:2014-05-05 Accepted:2014-08-06 Online:2015-03-10 Published:2015-03-10

摘要: 大风是一种灾害性天气,极易造成海上航运及海上渔船生产作业困难、渔业养殖设施损坏。分析沿海大风的时空分布特征,总结预报指标及构建预报概念模型,有利于深入了解沿海大风的气候特点、发生发展机理,从而提高预报准确率。利用1971—2010年辽宁沿海17个常规站日最大风速、风向资料,针对辽宁沿海的4个海区及单站的7级以上大风,对其风速和风向的时空分布特征进行统计分析,结果显示:(1)辽东半岛南部沿海地区出现日数最多,最多位于旅顺市,大风总日数为925天,平均每年23.1天;(2)辽东半岛西部、南部和东部沿海偏北大风次数要明显多于偏南大风站次数,渤海北部沿海的大风天气以西南偏南大风为最多;(3)辽宁沿海大风主要出现在春季,其中4月份最多为51天,冬季次之,夏秋季出现最少;(4)风向主要以偏北风和偏南风为主,东西风出现次数较少;(5)10月至次年2月辽宁沿海偏北大风占主导地位,4—6月份辽宁沿海偏南大风占主导地位。以NCEP再分析资料为基础,针对1971—2010年26次大风典型个例普查地面及高空影响系统,对辽宁海上大风进行天气学分型,将其分为高低压型、高压型、低压型等3种。按照不同的天气学分型对其分别建立预报概念模型,确定预报关键区并初步总结预报指标。

关键词: 化学成分, 化学成分

Abstract: Wind is a kind of severe weather,easily causes operational difficulties to maritime shipping and offshore fishing production, and damages aquaculture facilities. By analysis of temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the coastal winds, summarizing the prediction index concept and building a forecast model, is helpful to further understand the characteristics of the climate in the coastal winds and its development mechanism, so as to improve prediction accuracy. Based on wind direction data during 1971 to 2010 of the 17 coastal conventional stations in Liaoning Province,the author analyzed the daily maximum wind speed and summarized the?spatial and temporal distribution. The results showed that: (1) the most windy days appeared on the southern Liaodong Peninsula, Lvshun, 925 days in the past 40 a, 23.1 days per year on average; (2) the north winds appeared significantly more than south winds on the western and southern and eastern of Liaodong Peninsula, windy weather along the northern part of the Bohai coast dominated by southwest winds; (3)Liaoning coastal winds mainly appeared in the spring, mostly appear in April; followed by winter, least in summer and autumn; (4) the dominant wind directions were N and S, W and E appeared less; (5) the dominant wind directions during October to February was N, the dominant wind directions during April to March was S. Based on the NCEP reanalysis data, 26 gale case patterns were classified into high-low type, high pressure, low pressure, and concept prediction models, and key forecasting areas were identified and prediction index was established.