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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (20): 195-201.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15030204

所属专题： 小麦； 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

江苏省冬小麦冻害风险评价指标的构建

李亚春1,吴洪颜1,贺金芳2,王友美2,高 苹1   

  1. (1江苏省气象局,南京 210008；2金坛市气象局,江苏金坛 213200）
  • 收稿日期:2015-03-25 修回日期:2015-07-06 接受日期:2015-04-13 出版日期:2015-07-28 发布日期:2015-07-28
  • 通讯作者: 李亚春
  • 基金资助:
    公益性行业（气象）科研专项“黄淮海地区冬小麦农业气象指标体系研究”(GYHY201106030)；中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目“长江中下游冬小麦湿渍害风险评估技术集成与应用”(CMAGJ2015M24）。

Establishment of Freezing Injury Risk Evaluation Index for Winter Wheat in Jiangsu Province

Li Yachun1, Wu Hongyan1, He Jinfang2, Wang Youmei2, Gao Ping1   

  1. (1Jiangsu Province Meteorological Bureau, Nanjing 210008;2Jiangsu Jintan Meteorological Bureau, Jintan Jiangsu 213200)
  • Received:2015-03-25 Revised:2015-07-06 Accepted:2015-04-13 Online:2015-07-28 Published:2015-07-28

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摘要： 为了科学评估江苏冬小麦冻害风险，为防灾减灾和粮食稳产高产提供依据，利用1960—2010年江苏省常规气象观测资料、农业气象观测资料和冬小麦产量资料，筛选出江苏冬小麦低温冻害的主要致灾因子，并确定了致灾指标。在此基础上根据风险分析原理，采用灰色关联分析方法，构建了综合气候产量减产率和低温冻害指标的冬小麦低温冻害风险定量评估指数模型。结果表明，将江苏省划分为高风险区、中风险区和低风险区：高风险区为淮河——苏北灌溉总渠以北的大部分地区及盐城东北部地区，风险值大于50%，可能造成的产量损失平均为3%~6%，低风险区为淮河——苏北灌溉总渠以南除盐城东北部以外的全省大部分地区，风险值低于35%，产量损失不大，中风险区主要为这两者的过渡地带，可能造成的产量损失为0~3%。评估结果较好地反映了历史和实际情况，可以作为江苏冬小麦冻害风险评估和防控的依据。

关键词: ‘夕阳红’ 槭, ‘夕阳红’ 槭, 扦插, 植物生长调节剂, 生根

Abstract: Based on the meteorological and agro-meteorological observation data and winter wheat freezing injury data and winter wheat yields in Jiangsu Province from 1960 to 2010, the main factors causing freezing injury was screened and freezing injury index sequences were established. According to the risk analysis principle, combined with the index and winter wheat yield reduction rate, the winter wheat freezing injury risk estimation model was established by the grey correlation method. The freezing injury risk estimation index was applied to determine the risk grades of wheat freezing injury of different regions in Jiangsu Province and evaluate their risks. The high risks of such freezing injury mainly occurred in the north part along Huaihe River and irrigation canal and northeast of Yancheng, where the risk value was more than 50% and the possible yields loss was 3%-6%. The low risks mainly occurred in the most of south part along Huaihe River and irrigation canal, where the risk value was lower than 35% and would lead to small loss. And the moderate risks mainly occurred in the?transition zone between the above two areas and the possible yields loss was 0-3%. The results could reflect the historical and actual situation and used as the basis for the evaluation and prevention of winter wheat freezing disaster in Jiangsu Province．