气候变化下水肥及CO2对冬小麦生长的影响模拟

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15070030

中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (33): 27-36.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15070030

所属专题：小麦；农业气象

气候变化下水肥及CO2对冬小麦生长的影响模拟

路婧琦,崔耀平,张帅帅,闵敏,冯天伟

河南大学环境与规划学院/黄河文明传承与现代文明建设河南省协同创新中心,河南大学环境与规划学院/黄河文明传承与现代文明建设河南省协同创新中心,河南大学环境与规划学院/黄河文明传承与现代文明建设河南省协同创新中心,河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心,河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心

收稿日期:2015-07-06 修回日期:2015-11-04 接受日期:2015-08-25 出版日期:2015-11-26 发布日期:2015-11-26
通讯作者: 崔耀平
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金“京津冀地区土地利用变化对区域气温的调节机制和贡献率研究”(41401504)；国家重点基础研究发展计划“全球变化与区域可持续发展耦合模型及调控对策”(2014CB954302)；技术服务项目“县域科学发展空间布局高分动态监测与评估产品设计”；河南省重点科技攻关项目“城镇土地演化轨迹探测与规划发展路径识别技术”(152102310296)。

Simulation of Irrigation, Fertilization and CO2 Concentration on Winter Wheat Yield Under the Background of Global Climate Change

路婧琦,崔耀平,张帅帅,闵敏 and 冯天伟

Received:2015-07-06 Revised:2015-11-04 Accepted:2015-08-25 Online:2015-11-26 Published:2015-11-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 从机理上研究冬小麦最优水肥管理措施及其对大气CO2浓度变化的适应性，对保障粮食安全、促进农业可持续发展有重要意义。基于DSSATv4.5 模型中的CERES-Wheat 模块，模拟开封市冬小麦2001—2010 年气象条件变化对冬小麦开花期、成熟期的影响；设定42 种水肥组合方式，分析水肥因素对冬小麦产量的影响，同时选取出最优水肥组合方式；在最优水肥组合方式支持下，模拟不同大气CO2浓度水平下冬小麦的生长状况，分析CO2的施肥效应。研究结果表明：冬小麦开花期、成熟期随降水量的增加有所提前；生长期平均温增加能够明显促进冬小麦开花期、成熟期提前；灌溉量、施肥量的增加对冬小麦产量带来先快速增长后趋于稳定的增产效果，但过量施肥或灌溉均会导致不同程度的减产；大气CO2浓度增高对冬小麦有明显的增产效果，同时其各项生产指标也随CO2浓度增高而表现出平稳增长的趋势。可得出结论：冬小麦开花期、成熟期较晚的年份其生长期平均温均在11.0℃以下；控制施肥量300 kg/hm2、灌溉量200 mm左右的水肥组合能够达到理想的冬小麦高产节约种植效果；未来40 年的大气CO2浓度增高会对冬小麦种植带来明显的增产效应。

关键词: 模糊层次综合评价法, 模糊层次综合评价法, 旅游资源评价, 自然保护区, 雅鲁藏布大峡谷

Abstract: Studying the mechanism of optimal irrigation, fertilization management and atmospheric CO2 concentration of winter wheat is important to food security and agricultural sustainability. This paper simulated the impact of meteorological condition on the anthesis and maturity period of winter wheat during 2001 to 2010 based on the CERES-Wheat model in DSSATv4.5. The impact of irrigation and fertilization on winter wheat yield was studied by 42 kinds of compound modes and the optimal compound mode of irrigation and fertilization management was chosen. The winter wheat yield in different CO2-concentration conditions was simulated under the optimal irrigation and fertilization management. The results showed that the anthesis and maturity period of winter wheat advanced as the precipitation and mean temperature in growing season increased. The winter wheat yield increased and then stayed stable with the increase of irrigation and fertilizer amount, but excessive irrigation and fertilization would decrease the yield. The increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration had an obviously yield-increasing effect on winter wheat, and other production indexes showed a steady increase trend. The years whose mean temperature was less than 11.0℃ had later anthesis and maturity period; the compound mode of 300 kg/hm2 fertilization amount and 200 mm irrigation amount could achieve the ideal effect of winter wheat yield; the increase atmospheric CO2 concentration in the future 40 years could bring significantly yield-increasing effect on winter wheat.

路婧琦,崔耀平,张帅帅,闵敏,冯天伟. 气候变化下水肥及CO2对冬小麦生长的影响模拟[J]. 中国农学通报, 2015, 31(33): 27-36.

路婧琦,崔耀平,张帅帅,闵敏 and 冯天伟. Simulation of Irrigation, Fertilization and CO2 Concentration on Winter Wheat Yield Under the Background of Global Climate Change[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2015, 31(33): 27-36.

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气候变化下水肥及CO2对冬小麦生长的影响模拟

Simulation of Irrigation, Fertilization and CO2 Concentration on Winter Wheat Yield Under the Background of Global Climate Change

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