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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (8): 164-169.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15100041

• 三农研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

“五化”视角下的粮食安全问题研究

周 丽,匡远配   

  1. (湖南农业大学经济学院,长沙 410128）
  • 收稿日期:2015-10-13 修回日期:2016-03-01 接受日期:2015-12-01 出版日期:2016-03-18 发布日期:2016-03-18
  • 通讯作者: 匡远配
  • 基金资助:
    国家社科基金重大项目“我国特殊类型贫困地区扶贫开发战略研究”(10ZD&025)；湖南省财政厅课题“碳汇价值化和生态补偿在农村贫困中的贡献研究”；国家软科学研究计划重大合作项目“粮食主产区利益补偿及其机制创新”(2014GXSZD016)。

Food Security from the Perspective of New Industrialization, Informatization, Urbanization, Agricultural Modernization and Greenization: An Example of Hunan Province

Zhou Li, Kuang Yuanpei   

  1. (Economics Institute, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha 410128)
  • Received:2015-10-13 Revised:2016-03-01 Accepted:2015-12-01 Online:2016-03-18 Published:2016-03-18

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摘要： 为研究湖南省粮食安全的影响因素，促进湖南省粮食生产的可持续发展，以2001—2012年湖南省农业现代化、城镇化、信息化、新型工业化和绿色化的“五化”中具有代表性的指标值为试验材料，采用熵权法和多元线性回归的方法对湖南粮食产量的影响因素进行了定量研究。结果表明：农业现代化对粮食产量的弹性系数为0.182，新型工业化对粮食产量的弹性系数为0.369，绿色化对粮食生产的弹性系数为1.162，这“三化”分别以10%、5%、1%的显著性通过了检验，对粮食产量的影响较大。因此，应结合湖南的实际，有重点的多考虑农业现代化、新型工业化、绿色化对粮食安全的影响，确保湖南省粮食生产目标按质按量地完成。

关键词: 小麦, 小麦, 亲缘系数, 遗传多样性, 抗条锈性

Abstract: In order to study the influence factors of food security in Hunan Province and ensure a sustainable development of its grain production, the authors took representative indexes of new industrialization, informatization, urbanization, agricultural modernization and greenization as the test materials, derived the values of these indexes from 2001 to 2012 in Hunan Province. By using entropy weight method and multiple linear regression method, the influence factors of grain production were quantitatively studied. The results showed that: the elastic coefficient of agricultural modernization was 0.182, the elastic coefficient of new industrialization was 0.369, the elastic coefficient of greenization was 1.162, agricultural modernization, industrialization and greenization passed the test respectively by 10%, 5% and 1%, and had greater impact on grain production. Therefore, more attention should be paid to the impact of agricultural modernization, new industrialization and greenization in combining with the actual situation of Hunan Province in order to achieve the grain production goals according to the quality and quantity.