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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (3): 135-142.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16050036

所属专题： 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

1978-2014年新疆农作物受极端气候事件影响的灾情变化趋势分析

唐湘玲a,吕新,欧阳异能,何瑛   

  1. 石河子大学理学院,;石河子市;石河子市;乌鲁木齐市,石河子,石河子大学理学院,新疆教育学院
  • 收稿日期:2016-05-06 修回日期:2016-10-12 接受日期:2016-10-14 出版日期:2017-02-10 发布日期:2017-02-10
  • 通讯作者: 唐湘玲a
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目）

Disaster Trend of Crops Affected by Extreme Climatic Events in Xinjiang During 1978-2014

  • Received:2016-05-06 Revised:2016-10-12 Accepted:2016-10-14 Online:2017-02-10 Published:2017-02-10

PDF (PC)

450

摘要： 为了减少极端气候事件对农作物产量带来的损失，本研究基于灾害学理论，借助数理统计的趋势分析、相关分析、多元回归等方法，分析1978—2014年旱灾、洪灾、风雹及低温冷害等极端气候事件对新疆农作物成灾、受灾面积的影响。并用1978—2014年间新疆农作物生产投入产出的相关数据和扩展的柯布-道哥拉斯生产函数(C-D)构建非线性模型，揭示不同投入因素对农作物产量的影响。结果表明：（1）近37年来，旱灾、洪灾、风雹及低温冷害等极端气候事件对新疆农作物的受灾面积及成灾面积均以不同幅度大小呈现出上升趋势；（2）1978—2014年各种气象灾害导致新疆农作物直接经济损失为93.772亿元，其中旱灾导致的农作物经济损失占总气象灾害损失的29.7%，冷冻占14.64%，其他灾害占28.4%；（3）在影响新疆单位面积农作物产量的诸多因素当中，成灾率是对该区域农作物产量影响最大的因素，当成灾率每增加1%时，而单位面积农作物产量将减产3.73%。

关键词: 水稻, 水稻, 核蛋白, 亚细胞定位, 基因克隆, 生物信息学

Abstract: The paper aims to reduce the cost brought from the extreme climatic events. Based on the disaster theory and with the help of the trend analysis of mathematical statistics, correlation analysis, multiple regression etc, so as to analyze the influences which the Xinjiang crops suffered disaster and damage because of the extreme climatic events such as drought, flood, hailstorm, chilling damage etc during 1978-2014. Meanwhile, using the relevant data obtained from the Xinjiang crops production inputs-outputs and expanded Cobb-Douglas production function (C-D) for establishing non-linear model to reveal the influences of different input elements on crop output. The results indicated that: (1) the drought, flood, hailstorm, chilling damage etc extreme climatic events caused the Xinjiang crops suffered disaster, no matter was damaged area or disaster area, and showed the rising trend with different range in the past 37 years; (2) the direct economic loss of Xinjiang crops was 9.3772 billion RMB due to the all kinds of meteorological disaster, among in which the drought loss accounted for 29.7% of the total meteorological disaster, and the freezing accounted for 14.64%, others accounted for 28.4%; (3) the factors which affected the crops output unit area in Xinjiang, the disaster rate was the highest factor affected crops output, the crops output in unit area would reduce 3.37% when the disaster rate increased 1%.