关键词: 绿叶蔬菜价格, 绿叶蔬菜价格, 都市, 预测预警, 模型

Abstract: Aiming at the ecological security of cultivated land in black soil area, this paper selected typical black soil area in Changchun as the research object, constructed the cultivated land ecological security index system in black soil region based on the“pressure-state-respond”model, to analyze the ecological security situation and obstacle factors by AHP, entropy method and the resistance model. The results showed that: (1)from 2005 to 2014, Changchun’s cultivated land ecological security level showed a“safety— sensitive- safety—sensitive—sensitive- safety” change, presenting a fluctuated decreasing trend; (2) the response index of cultivated land ecological security in Changchun increased, and the pressure index and the state index decreased; (3) the trends of individual obstacle factors showed that the resistances of grassland coverage, natural disaster index, agricultural fiscal expenditure, chemical fertilizer load of unit cultivated land area increased significantly; (4) this study analyzed the spatial distribution of cultivated land ecological security in Changchun, in 2005, Changchun was in a safe state, in 2008, the distribution area of the safe area narrowed to the west of Changchun, and the sensitive area expanded to the eastern part of Changchun. Except Shuangyang in 2011, Changchun was in a safe state. Therefore, we should pay attention to soil and water conservation and scientific utilization of chemical fertilizers and pesticides in the process of cultivated land use, and protect the ecological security of cultivated land of black soil area.