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中国农学通报 ›› 2023, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (22): 132-137.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2022-0607

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

高寒草原气象因子对针茅牧草成熟期的影响

张晓云(), 孔祥萍()   

  1. 青海省海南州气象局,青海共和 813099
  • 收稿日期:2022-07-16 修回日期:2022-10-26 出版日期:2023-08-05 发布日期:2023-07-28
  • 通讯作者: 孔祥萍,女,1981年出生,青海门源人,工程师,本科,主要从事气象业务管理。通信地址:813099 青海省海南州共和县恰卜恰镇城北新区政和大街 海南州气象局,Tel:0974-8522690,E-mail:ggqxfwdt@163.com
  • 作者简介:

    张晓云,男,1972年出生,青海共和人,高级工程师,本科,主要从事气候变化方面的研究。通信地址:813099 青海省海南州共和县恰卜恰镇城北新区政和大街 海南州气象局,Tel:0974-8515739,E-mail:

The Influence of Meteorological Factors on Mature Period of Stipa Herbage in Alpine Grassland

ZHANG Xiaoyun(), KONG Xiangping()   

  1. Meteorological Bureau in Hainan Prefecture of Qinghai Province, Gonghe, Qinghai 813099
  • Received:2022-07-16 Revised:2022-10-26 Online:2023-08-05 Published:2023-07-28

摘要:

探明高寒草原牧草成熟期变化特征及其影响因子,可为当地牧草成熟期的确定提供科学依据。利用三江源区兴海县气象局观测的1999—2021年高寒草原西北针茅牧草成熟期物候资料及同期气象资料,对牧草成熟期变化趋势进行分析,寻找影响成熟期的主要气象因子,并构建成熟期预测模型。结果表明:(1)1999—2021年三江源区兴海县高寒草原西北针茅牧草成熟期的平均气温呈微弱降低趋势,而降水量呈极显著增多趋势。(2)1999—2021年三江源区兴海县高寒草原西北针茅成熟期呈不显著提前趋势。牧草成熟期年际变化较大,最早与最晚相差36 d。(3)相关分析表明,4月中旬日照时数、5月中旬平均气温和平均最高气温、6月上旬平均最高气温、7月下旬的平均气温和平均最高气温与牧草成熟期呈显著负相关。(4)回归方程显示,6月上旬、7月下旬平均最高气温每升高(降低)1.0℃,4月中旬日照时数每增加(减少)10 h,牧草成熟期则相应提前(或推迟)1.6、2.0、1.7 d。建立的模型可为及时、准确地开展天然草场牧草成熟期预报工作提供理论依据。

关键词: 高寒草原, 物候期, 变化特征, 相关分析, 预测模型, 三江源

Abstract:

To explore the characteristics of forage mature period and their influencing factors in alpine grassland, and provide a scientific basis for the determination of local forage maturity, based on the phenological period data of the mature period of alpine grassland and the corresponding meteorological data observed by Xinghai County Meteorological Bureau in Sanjiangyuan region from 1999 to 2021, this paper analyzed the change trend of the mature period of alpine grassland and its main influencing meteorological factors, and built the forecast model of the mature period of herbage. (1) The average temperature in the mature period of Stipa herbage showed a weak trend of decrease, while the precipitation showed a very significant trend of increase in Xinghai County of Sanjiangyuan region from 1999 to 2021. (2) From 1999 to 2021, the mature period of herbage in Xinghai County showed a non-significant early-trend. The mature period of herbage varied greatly from year to year, and the difference between the earliest and the latest was 36 d. (3) The correlation analysis showed that sunshine duration in the middle of April, mean temperature and mean maximum temperature in the middle of May, mean maximum temperature in early June, mean temperature and mean maximum temperature in late July had significantly negative correlations with the mature period of herbage. (4) The regression analysis showed that, when the mean maximum temperature in early June and late July increased (decreased) by 1.0℃, and the sunshine duration increased (decreased) by 10 hours in the middle of April, the maturity of herbage was earlier (or delayed) by 1.6, 2.0 and 1.7 days, respectively. The established forecast model can provide a theoretical basis for the timely and accurate forecast of the mature period of natural pasture forage in the Sanjiangyuan region.

Key words: alpine grassland, phenological period, variation characteristics, correlation analysis, forecast model, Sanjiangyuan region