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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2024, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (36): 9-16.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0640

• 农学·农业基础科学 • 上一篇    下一篇

河南省夏玉米高温和干旱复合胁迫风险评估

李浩宁1,2(), 任丽伟3()   

  1. 1 河南省气象科学研究所，郑州 450016
    2 安阳国家气候观象台，河南安阳 455000
    3 河南省气象服务中心，郑州 450003
  • 收稿日期:2023-09-12 修回日期:2024-10-22 出版日期:2024-12-25 发布日期:2024-12-23
  • 通讯作者:
    任丽伟，女，1971年出生，黑龙江鸡西人，正高级工程师，本科，主要从事农业气象灾害预报预警技术方面的研究。通信地址：450003 河南省郑州市金水区金水路110号 河南省气象服务中心，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    李浩宁，女，1995年出生，河南鹤壁人，工程师，硕士，研究方向：气象防灾减灾。通信地址：450016 河南郑州管城回族区南三环与中州大道交叉口 河南省气象科学研究所，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    安阳国家气候观象台开放研究基金; 鹤壁市农业气象与遥感重点实验室开放研究基金“河南省夏玉米高温和干旱复合胁迫风险评估”(AYNCOF202315); 河南省科技攻关计划项目“夏玉米高温热害精细化遥感监测预警”(242102321027)

Risk Assessment of Combined Stress of High Temperature and Drought on Summer Maize in Henan Province

LI Haoning1,2(), REN Liwei3()   

  1. 1 Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou 450016
    2 Anyang National Climate Observatory, Anyang, Henan 455000
    3 Henan Meteorological Service Center, Zhengzhou 450003
  • Received:2023-09-12 Revised:2024-10-22 Published:2024-12-25 Online:2024-12-23

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摘要：

本研究旨在构建河南省夏玉米高温和干旱复合胁迫风险评估体系，运用层次分析法计算干旱综合风险和高温综合风险的权重分布，从致灾因子危险性、承载体暴露性、孕灾环境脆弱性和防灾减灾能力4个方面综合评价风险分布。结果表明，干旱综合风险较高的地区主要集中在河南北部，高温综合风险较高的地区主要集中在河南南部。构建河南省夏玉米干旱、高温复合胁迫灾害综合评估体系，得到干旱风险和高温风险的权重分别为0.4938、0.5062。高温和干旱复合胁迫风险分布与纬度不密切相关，还受到自然条件等多种因素的共同影响，全省大部分地区处于中低风险区，高风险区主要集中在河南西部以及西南部的小部分地区。评估结果以期为防灾减灾，保障河南省玉米生产的政策制定提供一定的理论支持。

关键词: 夏玉米, 高温胁迫, 干旱胁迫, 复合胁迫, 风险评估, 层次分析法

Abstract:

In this paper, the risk assessment system for high temperature and drought combined stress of summer maize in Henan Province was constructed, and the weight distribution of drought comprehensive risk and high temperature comprehensive risk was calculated by using analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The paper also comprehensively evaluated the risk distribution from four aspects: the risk of disaster causing factors, the exposure of carriers, the vulnerability of disaster pregnant environment, and the ability of disaster prevention and reduction. The results show that the areas with high comprehensive risk of drought are mainly concentrated in the north of Henan Province, and the areas with high comprehensive risk of high temperature are mainly concentrated in the south of Henan Province. The comprehensive assessment system for drought and high temperature combined stress disasters of summer maize in Henan Province was constructed, and the weights of drought risk and high temperature risk were 0.4938 and 0.5062 respectively. The risk distribution of combined high temperature and drought stress was not closely related to latitude, but was also influenced by various factors such as natural conditions. Most parts of the province are in low-risk areas, and the high-risk areas are mainly concentrated in western Henan and a small part of the southwest. The evaluation results provide theoretical support for disaster prevention and reduction and ensuring the production of corn in Henan Province.

Key words: summer maize, high temperature stress, drought stress, compound stress, risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process(AHP)