欢迎访问《中国农学通报》，
中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2026, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (19): 130-136.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2026-0238

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

未来气候变化对河南省夏玉米适宜种植区的影响

毛洋洋1(), 郭燕玲2,3   

  1. 1 河南省气象综合保障中心， 郑州 450003
    2 河南省气象科学所， 郑州 450003
    3 中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室， 郑州 450003
  • 收稿日期:2026-04-02 修回日期:2026-08-04 出版日期:2026-10-15 发布日期:2026-10-15
  • 作者简介:

    毛洋洋，女，1988年出生，河南周口人，工程师，硕士，研究方向为气候变化及作物模型应用。通信地址：450016 河南郑州管城回族区南三环与中州大道交叉口 郑州市气象局，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    河南省重大科技专项“融合多源数据异常天气下小麦玉米灾害应变技术创新与集成应用”(241100110300); 中国气象局河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室应用技术研究项目“气象为农服务精品课程开发”(KM202333)

Impact of Future Climate Change on Suitable Planting Areas for Summer Maize in Henan Province

MAO Yangyang1(), GUO Yanling2,3   

  1. 1 Henan Meteorological Comprehensive Support Center, Zhengzhou 450003
    2 Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou 450003
    3 Henan Provincial Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Safeguard and Applied Technique, China Meteorological Administration, Zhengzhou 450003
  • Received:2026-04-02 Revised:2026-08-04 Published:2026-10-15 Online:2026-10-15

RichHTML

1

PDF (PC)

6

摘要： 通过对比历史时段和未来时段河南省夏玉米气候区划结果，探索未来气候变化对河南省夏玉米适宜种植区的影响，以期为河南省夏玉米应对未来气候变化采取合理的布局等措施提供参考。基于河南省82个气象观测站1975—2007年的历史气象数据、CMIP6气候情景模式输出的同时段历史气象数据以及不同排放情景（SSP245和SSP585）2015—2064年的气候数据，选取夏玉米全生育期的降水量、太阳辐射、日平均气温≥10℃积温等6个气候要素作为河南省夏玉米气候区划指标，分别统计基准时段（1975—2007年）、SSP245和SSP585 2种情景下2044（2015—2044）年、2054（2025—2054）年、2064（2035—2064）年6个区划指标的多年平均值，并采用Delta法对其进行偏差校正，用ArcGIS对各气候区划指标进行1 km×1 km空间插值，基于各区划指标插值结果，用模糊数学法把河南省夏玉米气候区划分为3个不同等级气候适宜种植区域，并进一步分析种植区域和种植面积比例的变化情况。结果表明，SSP245情景下未来40 a河南省夏玉米3个不同适宜种植区域和基准时段相比各区域只出现小幅度波动，总体呈现平稳局势。SSP585情景下未来40 a河南省夏玉米适宜种植区出现剧烈的震荡，先骤减再慢慢回升，次适宜和不适宜种植区先增加后减少。考虑到SSP245更接近实际气候变化，未来40 a河南省可以继续延续之前对夏玉米的种植布局。

关键词: 气候变化, 河南省, 夏玉米, CMIP6, 适宜种植区

Abstract:

This study investigated the impacts of future climate change on the suitable planting areas of summer maize in Henan Province by comparing climatic regionalization results between historical and future periods, with the aim of providing a scientific reference for adaptive planting layout strategies. Using historical meteorological data from 82 weather stations in Henan during 1975-2007, along with concurrent CMIP6 model outputs and future climate projections under two emission scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) for 2015-2064, six climatic indices, including precipitation, solar radiation, and accumulated temperature (daily mean ≥10℃) over the entire growth period, were selected as regionalization criteria. For the baseline period (1975-2007) and three future periods under SSP245 and SSP585 (2044: 2015-2044, 2054: 2025-2054, 2064: 2035-2064), multi-year averages of the six indices were calculated, bias-corrected using the Delta method, and spatially interpolated to a 1 km × 1 km resolution via ArcGIS. Based on these interpolated results, a fuzzy mathematics approach was applied to classify Henan Province into three climatic suitability grades, and subsequent analyses examined changes in both the spatial distribution and area proportions of each grade. The results indicated that under the SSP245 scenario, the three suitability grades exhibited only minor fluctuations compared with the baseline over the next 40 years, suggesting a generally stable pattern. In contrast, under the SSP585 scenario, the suitable area experienced pronounced volatility, initially decreasing sharply and then recovering gradually, while the moderately suitable and unsuitable areas first expanded and later contracted. Given that the SSP245 scenario was more consistent with observed climate trends, it was recommended that the current summer maize planting layout in Henan Province could be maintained over the next 40 years without major adjustments.

Key words: climate change, Henan Province, summer maize, CMIP6, suitable planting areas

中图分类号: