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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2026, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (12): 119-126.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2025-0895

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化对西藏日喀则春青稞发育期的影响

杜军1,2,3(), 路红亚1, 徐薇3, 刘建栋4(), 黄志诚2,5   

  1. 1 西藏自治区气候中心， 拉萨 850001
    2 中国气象局墨脱大气水分循环综合观测野外科学试验基地/墨脱国家气候观象台/墨脱大气水分循环西藏自治区野外科学观测研究站， 西藏林芝 860700
    3 中国气象局日喀则国家气候观象台， 西藏日喀则 857000
    4 中国气象科学研究院， 北京 100081
    5 西藏自治区气象信息网络中心， 拉萨 850001
  • 收稿日期:2025-10-31 修回日期:2026-03-12 出版日期:2026-06-25 发布日期:2026-06-23
  • 通讯作者:
    刘建栋，男，1969年出生，河北辛集人，研究员，博士，主要从农业气象灾害、作物模型等方面的研究。通信地址：100081 北京市海淀区中关村南大街46号 中国气象科学研究院，Tel：010-68408957，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    杜军，男，1969年出生，贵州绥阳人，高级工程师，本科，主要从事高原气候与气候变化、生态与农业气候方面的研究。通信地址：850001 西藏自治区拉萨市林廓北路2号 西藏自治区气候中心，Tel：0891-6363565，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    西藏自治区科技重大专项“青藏高原西藏地区气候变化特征、归因、影响及应对研究与技术集成示范”(XZ202402ZD0006); 西藏自治区科技重大专项“青藏高原西藏地区气候变化特征、归因、影响及应对研究与技术集成示范”(XZ202402ZD0006-02); 西藏自治区气象局重点创新团队“气候条件对青稞产量影响分析”(XZ-ZD-CX04)

Impact of Climate Change on Development Period of Spring Highland Barley in Xizagê of Xizang

DU Jun1,2,3(), LU Hongya1, XU Wei3, LIU Jiandong4(), HUANG Zhicheng2,5   

  1. 1 Xizang Autonomous Region Climatic center, Lhasa 850001
    2 Xizang Mêdog Field Scientific Observation and Research Station for Atmospheric Water Cycle/ Mêdog National Climate Observatory/CMA Mêdog Field Science Experiment Base for Atmospheric Water Cycle, Linzhi, Xizang 860700
    3 Xizagê National Climate Observatory, CMA, Xizagê, Xizang 857000
    4 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081
    5 Meteorological Information and Network Center of Xizang Autonomous Region, Lhasa 850001
  • Received:2025-10-31 Revised:2026-03-12 Published:2026-06-25 Online:2026-06-23

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摘要：

青稞作为青藏高原的主要粮食作物，其生长发育和产量对气候变化较敏感。为适应气候变化、保障高原地区的粮食安全和推动青稞产业的高质量发展，本研究基于1992—2024年西藏日喀则地区春青稞的发育期数据，结合逐日平均气温、降水量、日照时数等气象资料，采用气候倾向率、Pearson相关系数、Mann-Kendall、Cramer和逐步回归等方法，分析1992—2024年（近33 a）日喀则春青稞发育期对气候变化的响应，探讨影响其发育期长度的主导气象因子。结果表明，（1）近33 a日喀则春青稞的各发育日期以2.77~9.64 d/10 a的速度显著推迟，其中以乳熟期推迟幅度最大，成熟期推迟幅度最小。营养生长期(VGP)的长度呈小幅延长趋势(0.62 d/10a)，生殖生长期(RGP)和全生育期(WGP)小幅长度表现为显著缩短趋势，平均分别缩短3.63 d/10a、3.62 d/10a。（2）90%的发育日期延迟的突变时间出现在2010年前后，除播种—三叶期外，各发育期长度的突变主要出现在21世纪初；VGP、WGP长度未出现显著突变，RGP长度在2013年由长转短。（3）日照时数略增是造成VGP长度延长的主导因子，RGP长度显著缩短是因为降水量明显减少和气温显著升高共同引起的，而气温显著上升导致WGP长度显著缩短。（4）气候变暖将缩短青稞全生育期，进而对产量形成产生不利影响，需通过优化种植管理和选育耐高温、抗逆性强的品种以应对气候变化。

关键词: 春青稞, 发育期, 气候倾向率, 突变, 日喀则

Abstract:

The highland barley is the main food crop on the Tibetan Plateau, and its growth and yield is highly sensitive to climate change. To adapt to climate change, ensure food security on the plateau, and promote the high-quality development of the highland barley industry, based on the data on the development stage (DVS) of spring highland barley in Xizagê and the daily meteorological data on the average temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration collected from 1992 to 2024, the response of DVS of highland barley to climate change in the recent 33 years was analyzed, and the leading meteorological factors influencing DVS were also identified through several statistical methods such as climate trend, Pearson correlation coefficients, Mann-Kendall, Cramer and stepwise regression method. The results showed that: (1) the dates of various development stages of spring highland barley have delayed significantly at a rate of 2.77-9.64 days per decade, with the dough stage delaying the most, and the maturity stage delaying the least. The length of vegetative growth period (VGP) was slightly prolonged (0.62 d/10a), and the length of reproductive growth period (RGP) and whole growth period (WGP) was significantly shortened, with a rate of 3.63 days and 3.62 days per decade, respectively. (2) About 90% abrupt change in the delays of development stages occurred around 2010. Except for the sowing to three leaf stage, the abrupt change in the length of each development stage mainly occurred at the beginning of the 21st century. No abrupt change in the lengths of the VGP and WGP were identified, while the length of the RGP underwent a turning point from long to short growth period in 2013. (3) The slight increase in sunshine duration was identified as leading factor causing the extension of VGP length. The significant shortened length of RGP was attributed to the combined effects of a noticeable decrease in precipitation and a significant rise in temperature, and the significant increase in temperature led to the significant shortened length of WGP. The above results indicate that climate warming will shorten the whole growth period of highland barley and has an impact on yield formation. It is necessary to optimize planting management and breeding high-temperature resistant varieties to cope with climate change.

Key words: spring highland barley, growth period, climate trend rate, climate abrupt, Xizagê

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