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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2026, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (13): 161-169.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2025-0973

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于气候适宜度模型的晚稻适播期评价——以广东肇庆为例

刘迎霞1,2(), 郭海洋3, 郭春辉1,2, 高俊杰1,2, 朱怀卫4, 黄天文1,2()   

  1. 1 广东省肇庆市气象局， 广东肇庆 526000
    2 肇庆市生态与农业气象重点实验室， 广东肇庆 526000
    3 肇庆市农林科学院， 广东肇庆 526000
    4 广东省生态气象中心， 广州 510640
  • 收稿日期:2025-12-09 修回日期:2026-04-27 出版日期:2026-07-15 发布日期:2026-07-09
  • 通讯作者:
    黄天文，女，1975年出生，广东台山人，高级工程师，硕士，主要从事多源数据融合应用及气象信息技术应用研究。通信地址：526000 广东省肇庆市端州区信安5路12号 广东省肇庆市气象局，Tel：0758-2263594，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    刘迎霞，女，1997年出生，河南商丘人，工程师，硕士，研究方向：农业气象。通信地址：526000 广东省肇庆市端州区信安5路12号 广东省肇庆市气象局，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    广东省肇庆市科技创新指导类项目“气候变化背景下肇庆市主要粮食作物适宜播期影响分析”(241224100090670)

Evaluation of Suitable Sowing Date of Late Rice Based on Climate Suitability Model: A Case Study of Zhaoqing, Guangdong

LIU Yingxia1,2(), GUO Haiyang3, GUO Chunhui1,2, GAO Junjie1,2, ZHU Huaiwei4, HUANG Tianwen1,2()   

  1. 1 Zhaoqing Meteorological Administration, Zhaoqing, Guangdong 526000
    2 Zhaoqing Key Laboratory of Ecological and Agricultural Meteorology, Zhaoqing, Guangdong 526000
    3 Zhaoqing Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Zhaoqing, Guangdong 526000
    4 Guangdong Ecological Meteorological Centre, Guangzhou 510640
  • Received:2025-12-09 Revised:2026-04-27 Published:2026-07-15 Online:2026-07-09

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摘要：

通过分析晚稻生长发育的气候适宜性，科学评估其适宜播期，为晚稻生产充分利用气候资源提供理论依据。利用肇庆市国家气象站1980—2024年的逐日气象数据，建立了晚稻各生育期及全生育期光、温、水等气候适宜度模型，评估当地晚稻种植的适宜播期。结果表明，在晚稻全生育期内，温度适宜度最高，日照适宜度次之，降水适宜度最低，且所有因子的适宜度均呈现随播种期推迟而下降的趋势。其中，温度和降水对晚稻的生长发育影响显著，日照影响最小；空间分布上，气候适宜度呈由南向北递减分布。随播期的延迟，适宜度高值区逐渐缩减。其中，7月8日播期的气候适宜度高值区范围最广阔，其次为7月15日播期。综上，根据综合气候适宜度指数，肇庆区域晚稻的较适宜播期范围为7月8—29日（7月上旬—下旬），其中，7月8日被确定为最适宜播期，较常年播种时间提前约7 d。若推迟播种，建议西部和北部山区不晚于7月22日（7月下旬前期），并优先选择早播，以最大程度地发挥气候资源的有利作用。

关键词: 晚稻, 气象因子, 气候适宜度, 适宜播期, 肇庆市

Abstract:

The study aims to analyze the climate suitability of late rice growth and development, evaluate its suitable sowing date, and provide a theoretical basis for making full use of climate resources for late rice production. Using daily meteorological data from 1980 to 2024 at the Zhaoqing National Meteorological Station, the climatic suitability models of light, temperature and water for each growth period and the whole growth period of late rice were established to evaluate the suitable sowing date for local late rice planting. The results showed that the temperature suitability index was the highest during the entire growth period of late rice, followed by solar radiation suitability, while precipitation suitability was the lowest, which decreased with the delay of sowing date; the temperature and precipitation had significant effects on the growth and development of late rice, and the sunshine had the least effect; in terms of spatial distribution, the climate suitability decreased from south to north, and the high value area of climate suitability gradually decreased with the delay of sowing date; the high value area of climate suitability was the widest in sowing date 1 (July 8), followed by sowing date 2 (July 15). In short, based on the comprehensive climate suitability indices, the moderately suitable sowing period of late rice in Zhaoqing is from July 8 to 29 (from the first ten days of July to the last ten days of July), and the most suitable sowing date is July 8, which is about 7 days earlier than the perennial sowing. If the sowing is delayed, it is recommended that it should not be later than July 22 (in the early ten days of July) in the western and northern mountainous areas, and early sowing is preferred.

Key words: late rice, meteorological factors, climate suitability, suitable sowing date, Zhaoqing

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