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中国农学通报 ›› 2011, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (17): 200-207.

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于因子分析方法的江苏省能源安全系统评价

王忠诚 李宁 李春华 施浩   

  • 收稿日期:2010-12-27 修回日期:2011-01-16 出版日期:2011-07-15 发布日期:2011-07-15
  • 基金资助:

    国家科技支撑计划项目;中南林业科技大学人才引进项目;湖南省教育厅项目“土地整理与新农村建设的耦合关系及模式创新研究”;湖南省国土厅项目“长株潭两型社会背景下城市功能结构与土地利用格局”

The System Assessment of Energy Security in Jiangsu Province Based on Factor Analysis Method

  • Received:2010-12-27 Revised:2011-01-16 Online:2011-07-15 Published:2011-07-15

摘要:

能源是社会经济发展的重要基础条件,其供应和使用安全问题一直倍受关注。笔者首先对区域能源系统安全内涵进行界定,从能源生产-消费过程和能源-人口、能源-经济和能源-环境3个子系统角度出发,建立了区域能源系统安全评价指标体系,然后利用因子分析的方法,对江苏省1990—2007年能源系统安全状况进行实证分析。结果发现,在现有的能源政策和社会经济条件下,该区域能源子系统安全状况变化不同,总的能源系统安全状况将趋于下降。此结论符合江苏能源系统的实际情况,说明该评价体系和评价模型用于区域能源安全的评价是有效的,能较好地揭示区域能源安全存在的问题,可以为区域能源安全决策提供参考依据。

关键词: 参与式, 参与式, 西藏, 新农村, 发展机制

Abstract:

Energy has played an important role in development of economy and society, security of which has become a focusing issue. Firstly, the authors have put forward a definition of regional energy security and have explained its interacting system elements in the light of the system theory and existing energy security research literatures. Secondly, the authors have established a set of index system, which consists of 10 composite index and concerns energy-economics, energy-environment, energy-population subsystem and introduced the algorithm of principal component analysis. Finally, according to the statistical data of Jiangsu province and by virtue of principal component analysis, the authors have analyzed the energy security status of Jiangsu province and have revealed its declining trend during the 1990-2007 under the current energy policy and socio-economic conditions. The result is in accordance with the actual situation of Jiangsu provincial energy system, which indicates that the established composite index system and used principal component analysis are effective in evaluating the regional energy security condition, the method can disclose the existing obstacles in the process of energy security system operation and provide a decision-making basis in guaranteeing the regional energy security.