关键词: 序列分析, 序列分析

Abstract:

Abstract In order to maximize to reduce the thunderstorm winds and hail weather damage, improve the two catastrophic weather forecasting warning ability. On the basis of statistics of no thunderstorms, ordinary thunderstorms and strong convective (thunderstorms, winds and hail) samples between April and September from 2000 to 2005 in Anhui Province, using 1×1 lattice point NCEP material, 43 elements characterized for thermal, power, moisture conditions were calculated, and physical extremum, normalized average etc. when no thunderstorms, ordinary thunderstorms or strong convective (thunderstorms winds and hail) were contrast analysis. Then based on the analysis results, away empty and forecast indexes which related good with strong convective were selected to determine the threshold of forecast indexes month by month and hourly. Finally, using the index fold set method, weather potential prediction product Anhui thunderstorms winds and hail was created. The real-time operation of 2007, when there were 28 strong convective process from June to September, was inspected using this method. The result was that all quote, nine empty quote, no omission, and the process TS was 30.4%. Judging from the inspection effect, the bigger of the index superposition value, the bigger probability of thunderstorm winds or hail. So it will play a positive role for the agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation.The real-time operation of 2007, when there were 28 strong convective process from June to September, was inspected using this method. The result was that all quote, nine empty quote, no omission, and the process TS was 30.4%. Judging from the inspection effect, the bigger of the index superposition value, the bigger probability of thunderstorm winds or hail. So it will play a positive role for the agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation.