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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2024, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (17): 97-105.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0589

所属专题： 农业气象

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于泊松分布的丹东蓝莓成熟期暴雨灾害风险分析

董海涛1(), 单璐璐1, 孟鑫1, 李如楠1, 房一禾2,3()   

  1. 1 丹东市气象局，辽宁丹东 118000
    2 沈阳区域气候中心，沈阳 110166
    3 盘锦国家气候观象台，辽宁盘锦 124000
  • 收稿日期:2023-08-21 修回日期:2024-02-08 出版日期:2024-06-15 发布日期:2024-06-11
  • 通讯作者:
    房一禾，男，1986年出生，黑龙江人，高级工程师，博士，研究方向：气候学。通信地址：110166 沈阳市和平区长白南路388号，Tel：02483893234，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    董海涛，男，1980年出生，黑龙江人，高级工程师，本科，主要从事农业气候方面的研究。通信地址：118000 辽宁省丹东市振兴区表厂路159号 丹东市气象局，Tel：0415-2151484，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1505601); 中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J022); 中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所开放基金项目(2020SYIAE08); 中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所开放基金项目(2020SYIAE06); 丹东市指导性科技计划项目(DD2023037)

Risk Analysis of Rainstorm Disaster in Dandong Blueberry Ripening Period Based on Poisson Distribution

DONG Haitao1(), SHAN Lulu1, MENG Xin1, LI Runan1, FANG Yihe2,3()   

  1. 1 Dandong Meteorological Bureau, Dandong, Liaoning 118000
    2 Shenyang Regional Climate Center, Shenyang 110166
    3 Panjin National Climate Observatory, Panjin, Liaoning 124000
  • Received:2023-08-21 Revised:2024-02-08 Published:2024-06-15 Online:2024-06-11

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摘要：

为全面了解暴雨灾害对蓝莓成熟期影响，利用1991—2020年丹东地区4个站点蓝莓成熟期的气象资料，以连续3 d或3 d以上暴雨（日降水量≥0.1 mm，且至少1 d降水量≥50 mm）作为暴雨灾害指标，综合考虑频次、强度和持续时间，制定了轻度、中度、重度暴雨灾害等级，通过灾害发生次数和站次比分析蓝莓暴雨灾害的变化规律，基于泊松分布评估暴雨灾害风险概率。结果表明：30 a间丹东地区蓝莓整个成熟期暴雨灾害影响呈减少趋势，暴雨发生次数呈现出南增北减趋势，其中凤城地区减少最为显著，暴雨灾害发生次数倾向率为0.19次/10 a(P<0.01)。30 a间早熟期发生暴雨灾害的风险较低，轻度和中度暴雨灾害的风险概率接近或二十年一遇以上(≥5%)，未发生重度灾害；暴雨灾害主要集中在晚熟期，轻度和重度灾害发生概率均在十年一遇以上(≥10%)。宽甸地区是发生暴雨灾害的高风险区，受灾范围广、频次高、程度重，三种级别暴雨灾害发生概率均在十年一遇以上(≥10%)。研究结果为科学应对蓝莓成熟期暴雨灾害提供参考依据。

关键词: 蓝莓, 成熟期, 暴雨灾害, 泊松分布, 风险概率

Abstract:

In order to understand the influence of rainstorm disaster on blueberry ripening period, the meteorological data of blueberry ripening period at four stations in Dandong Region from 1991 to 2020 were used. Taking the rainstorm continuous for 3 days or more (daily precipitation ≥0.1 mm and at least 1 day precipitation ≥50 mm) as the disaster index, considering the frequency, intensity and duration of the rainstorm comprehensively, the disaster grades of light, moderate and severe rainstorm were worked out, and the change rule of blueberry rainstorm disaster was analyzed by the disaster frequency and station-to-station ratio. The results showed that during the 30-year period, the heavy rain disasters in Dandong showed a decreasing trend, and the frequency of heavy rain increased in the south and decreased in the north, especially in Fengcheng, the frequency tendency rate of rainstorm disaster was 0.19 times/10 a(p<0.01). The risk of heavy rain disaster was low in the early maturing period of 30 years, and the risk probability of light and moderate heavy rain disaster was close to or more than once in 20 years (≥5%), and no serious disaster occurred, the probability of occurrence of both mild and severe disasters was more than 10 years (≥10%). Kuandian Manchu Autonomous County is a high-risk area for heavy rain disasters. The disaster area is wide, the frequency is high and the intensity is heavy. The probability of occurrence of the three types of heavy rain disasters is more than once in ten years (≥10%).The results provide a scientific basis for dealing with the heavy rain disaster during the mature period of blueberry.

Key words: blueberry, mature period, rainstorm disaster, Poisson distribution, risk probability