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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2024, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (23): 105-117.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0767

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于SPEI的陕西苹果产区近60a干旱变化特征

张勇1,3(), 黄俊芳2,3(), 刘璐1,3, 张维敏1,3, 屈振江2,3, 梁轶1,3   

  1. 1 陕西省农业遥感与经济作物气象服务中心，西安 710016
    2 陕西省气象干部培训学院，西安 710016
    3 陕西省气象局秦岭和黄土高原生态环境气象重点实验室，西安 710016
  • 收稿日期:2023-10-27 修回日期:2024-05-23 出版日期:2024-08-09 发布日期:2024-08-09
  • 通讯作者:
    黄俊芳，女，1980年出生，新疆昌吉人，工程师，博士，主要从事生态和农业气象灾害方面的研究。通信地址：710016 陕西省西安市未央区102-1号，Tel：029-86231652，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    张勇，男，1985年出生，甘肃天水人，高级工程师，硕士，研究方向为经济林果气象灾害。通信地址：710016 陕西省西安市未央区102-1号，Tel：029-86363055，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    陕西省气象局秦岭和黄土高原生态环境气象重点实验室开放研究基金(2023G-13); 陕西省重点研发计划项目(2022NY-219); 陕西省气象局科学技术研究项目“陕西苹果种植区干旱机制研究及应用”(2016Z-2)

Characteristics of Drought Changes in Shaanxi Apple Production Area over Last 60 Years Based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

ZHANG Yong1,3(), HUANG Junfang2,3(), LIU Lu1,3, ZHANG Weimin1,3, QU Zhenjiang2,3, LIANG Yi1,3   

  1. 1 Shaanxi Meteorological Service Center of Agricultural Remote Sensing and Economic Crop, Xi'an 710016
    2 Shaanxi Meteorological Training Center, Xi'an 710016
    3 Key Laboratory of Eco-Environment and Meteorology for the Qinling Mountains and Loess Plateaue, Xi’an 710016
  • Received:2023-10-27 Revised:2024-05-23 Published:2024-08-09 Online:2024-08-09

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摘要：

研究旨在明确气候变暖背景下陕西苹果产区的干旱变化特征，为陕西苹果产区适应气候变化，科学指导陕西苹果防旱减损提供参考。利用陕西省苹果产区近60 a的气象站月降水、气温资料，计算陕西苹果各产区年、生长季、各生育期的标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI，对其进行趋势、突变和周期变化分析。研究结果表明近60 a陕西苹果产区年际明显趋于干旱，生长季总体趋于干旱，突变点多集中在1970s和1990s，1990s后干旱趋势较为明显，其中渭北东部产区干旱趋势尤为显著、干旱风险持续增加；萌芽—幼果期干旱趋势十分明显，干旱风险持续增加，突变点多集中在1970s后期至1980s初期和1990s初期，1990s初期后干旱趋势较为明显，产区中渭北西部、渭北东部、关中的干旱趋势显著；着色—成熟期、越冬休眠期总体趋于干旱，突变点多集中在1970s，1970s中后期以来呈干旱趋势，各产区均存在干旱趋势但变化趋势不显著；果实膨大期则以波动变化为主，未有显著的变化趋势。基于SPEI的干旱分析结合了降雨和蒸散发、考虑了更长时间尺度、适用于不同气候区域，更能客观反映气候变暖背景下陕西苹果产区干旱情况。气候变化造成的降水偏少、气温升高是陕西苹果产区趋于干旱的主要影响因素。

关键词: 陕西苹果, SPEI, 分生育期, 趋势, 突变, 周期

Abstract:

The aim of the research is to clarify the characteristics of drought changes in Shaanxi apple producing areas under the background of climate warming, and provide reference for Shaanxi apple production area to adapt to climate change and scientifically guide drought prevention and damage reduction. Using the monthly precipitation and temperature data from meteorological stations in apple-producing areas in Shaanxi Province over the past 60 years, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for each growing season and stage in Shaanxi apple-producing areas was calculated, and its trend, abrupt change, and periodic variation were analyzed. The research results show that the annual precipitation in the apple-producing areas of Shaanxi has been significantly decreasing over the past 60 years, with a general trend towards aridity during the growing season. The mutation points were mainly concentrated in the 1970s and 1990s, with a more pronounced arid trend after the 1990s. Among them, the eastern Weibei apple-producing area was particularly affected, with an increasing risk of aridity. The period from bud formation to early fruiting stage shows a clear arid trend and an increasing risk of aridity. The mutation points were mostly concentrated in the late 1970s to early 1980s and early 1990s. After the early 1990s, the arid trend had become more apparent, especially in the western and eastern Weibei and Guanzhong producing areas. The coloring-ripening period and winter dormancy period show an overall arid trend, with most mutation points concentrated in the 1970s. Since the mid-to-late 1970s, there had been an arid trend, but the change was not significant in all producing areas. The fruit enlargement period mainly fluctuated without a significant trend. The drought analysis based on SPEI combines rainfall and evapotranspiration, considers longer time scales, and is applicable to different climatic regions, providing a more objective reflection of drought conditions in the apple-producing areas of Shaanxi Province under the background of climate warming. The main influencing factors leading to drought in this region are the decrease of precipitation and the increase of temperature caused by climate change.

Key words: apple production areas in Shaanxi province, SPEI, different growth periods, change trends, abrupt change, periodic variation