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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (15): 95-101.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2024-0254

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤 • 上一篇    下一篇

沈阳市玉米不同生育阶段气象要素变化趋势及气象产量预测模型

王越1(), 费雯丽2(), 程军1, 沈历都2, 邹岫明1, 阿迪力·阿里木1   

  1. 1 辽宁省沈阳市农业农村局，沈阳 1100011
    2 中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所，沈阳 110016
  • 收稿日期:2024-04-17 修回日期:2025-04-18 出版日期:2025-05-25 发布日期:2025-05-29
  • 通讯作者:
    费雯丽，女，1996年出生，辽宁沈阳人，助理研究员，博士研究生，研究方向为农业气象、气候变化。通信地址：110016 辽宁省沈阳市沈河区文化路72号 中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所，Tel：024-83970336，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    王越，男，1996年出生，河北秦皇岛人，硕士研究生，研究方向为农业气象、粮食安全。通信地址：110016 辽宁沈阳市和平区南堤西路22号 沈阳市农业农村局，Tel：024-22842136，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    辽宁省科学技术计划面上项目“对土壤水分胁迫下春玉米物候期模拟方法的改进”(2023-MS-027)

Meteorological Elements Variation Trends and Meteorological Yield Prediction Model for Maize at Different Growth Stages in Shenyang

WANG Yue1(), FEI Wenli2(), CHENG Jun1, SHEN Lidu2, ZOU Xiuming1, ADIL Alim1   

  1. 1 Shenyang Agricultural and Rural Affairs Bureau of Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110001
    2 Shenyang Institute of Applied Ecology of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016
  • Received:2024-04-17 Revised:2025-04-18 Published:2025-05-25 Online:2025-05-29

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摘要： 为研究沈阳市玉米不同生育阶段气象要素变化趋势及其对气象产量的影响，采用Mann-Kendall检验法，分析沈阳市2000—2022年间气温、降水、相对湿度和风速4个气象要素在玉米播种期、拔节期、抽穗乳熟期和成熟期的平均值及年气象产量变化趋势特征，研究气候变化对玉米气象产量的影响。结果显示：气温在播种期和拔节期无显著变化趋势， 2017年前抽穗乳熟期呈现下降趋势，此后为上升趋势，2008年前成熟期呈现上升趋势，此后为下降趋势；降水在播种期和抽穗乳熟期呈现上升趋势，拔节期和成熟期无明显变化趋势；相对湿度在播种期无明显变化趋势，拔节期、抽穗乳熟期和成熟期呈现上升趋势；风速在4个生育阶段均呈现下降趋势。沈阳市玉米气象产量较高年份气温、降水在生育期均偏高，相对湿度在拔节期和抽穗乳熟期偏高，风速在生育期略低；气象产量较低年份气温在除播种期外略低，降水过高，相对湿度在抽穗乳熟期和成熟期略高，风速过低。研究表明，基于皮尔逊相关系数筛选出的主要影响因子为播种期降水、相对湿度、拔节期风速、抽穗乳熟期降水和成熟期温度、风速。基于以上因子和随机森林算法构建气象产量预测模型，可较好模拟出玉米气象产量变化趋势。研究旨在为沈阳市玉米生产管理、风险评估、农业可持续发展提供理论依据。

关键词: 玉米, 生育阶段, 气象要素, Mann-Kendall检验, 气象产量预测模型, 沈阳市

Abstract:

To investigate the trends of meteorological elements at different growth stages of maize in Shenyang and their impact on meteorological yield, the Mann-Kendall test was employed to analyze the mean values of four meteorological elements (i.e., air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed) during the sowing, jointing, tasseling-milk, and maturity stages and annual meteorological yield from 2000 to 2021. The impact of climate change on the meteorological yield of maize was studied. Results showed that there was no significant trend in air temperature during the sowing and jointing stages. Before 2017, there was a downward trend during the tasseling-milk stage, followed by an upward trend. Before 2008, there was an upward trend during the maturity stage, followed by a downward trend. Precipitation showed an upward trend during the sowing and tasseling-milk stages, while there was no significant trend during the jointing and maturity stages. The relative humidity showed no significant trend during the sowing stage, while it exhibited an increasing trend during the jointing, tasseling-milk, and maturity stages. The wind speed showed a decreasing trend in all four stages. In years with higher meteorological yields, air temperature and precipitation during the four stages were generally higher, relative humidity was higher during the jointing and tasseling-milk stages, and wind speed was slightly lower during the four stages. In years with lower meteorological yields, air temperatures were slightly lower during the growth stages except the sowing stage, precipitation was excessively high, relative humidity was slightly higher during the tasseling-milk and maturity stages, and wind speed was excessively low. Based on the Pearson correlation coefficient, the main influencing factors selected were precipitation and relative humidity during the sowing stage, wind speed during the jointing stage, precipitation during the tasseling-milk stage, and temperature and wind speed during the maturity stage. Based on the above factors and the random forest algorithm, a meteorological yield prediction model was constructed, which could effectively simulate the trend of meteorological yield. This study can provide the theoretical basis for maize industry management, risk assessment, and agricultural sustainable development in Shenyang.

Key words: maize, growth stages, meteorological elements, Mann-Kendall test, meteorological yield prediction model, Shenyang