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中国农学通报 ›› 2010, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (20): 324-329.

所属专题: 棉花 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

石河子地区近48年来气候变化对棉花产量影响分析

唐湘玲 刘姣娣 吕新   

  • 收稿日期:2010-05-21 修回日期:2010-06-02 出版日期:2010-10-20 发布日期:2010-10-20
  • 基金资助:

    青年科学基金

Climatic change of ShiHeZi and its influence on cotton production in recent 48 years

  • Received:2010-05-21 Revised:2010-06-02 Online:2010-10-20 Published:2010-10-20

摘要:

根据石河子地区3个气象台站1961-2008年的气象资料,建立石河子地区年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温、积温、无霜期及日照时数时间序列,利用距平、一元线性回归、相关性检验、小波分析等方法,对石河子地区近48年来5个基本气象要素变化进行分析。结果表明:(1)近48年来石河子地区年平均最高气温、最低气温除年际间的微小波动外,均呈现出上升趋势,前者变化幅度小于后者,气温年较差呈减小趋势;(2)≥10℃的年积温呈现出显著增多趋势,其上升幅度为93.1℃/10年,相关系数为0.546,通过了置信度α=0.01的显著性水平检验,且年平均积温主时间周期为16年,存在8年正负振荡;(3)无霜期及日照时数都呈增多趋势,但增多趋势不显著,而积温与日照时数呈显著的正相关。最后分析了石河子地区积温,年日照时数等热量的增多对棉花产量的影响。

关键词: 青海12号蚕豆, 青海12号蚕豆, 栽培, 组合

Abstract:

According to the shihezi area 3 meteorological offices and stations in 1961-2008 meteorological data, Establish shihezi area annual average temperature, average minimum temperature, temperature, shanxi and sunlight time sequence, using linear regression, atmospheric, inspection, wavelet analysis of correlation analysis method, shihezi area nearly 48 years basic meteorological elements of change. The results showed that: (1) nearly 48 years shihezi area annual average temperature, average minimum temperature except slight fluctuations between the interannual, presents ascendant trend, the former to the latter, changes in temperature than poorer showed a trend of decrease, (2) of years shows significantly increase the temperature, the rising trend for 93.1 ° c / 10 years, the correlation coefficient of 0.546, through the confidence of alpha = 0.01 significant level, and the annual average temperature cycles of time for 16 years, 8 years plus or minus oscillation, (3) frost-free period and sunlight time all is not significant, but the increasing trend, (4) shihezi area in sunshine duration, etc, the temperature increasing of quantity of heat to the local cotton yield and quality improvement.