Abstract: Lightning disasters were serious in rural areas in Chongqing, which made greater casualties and property loss every year. By analyzing the time distribution rule of lightning disasters from 1998 to 2012 and using the grey system theory modeling method, the grey cataclysm GM (1,1) prediction model of disastrous year was established to predict the lightning disaster trend in rural areas in Chongqing. The prediction result showed that: in the future 20 years, especially the year of 2021, it would be 4 to 5 disastrous years. The researches offered the scientific basis to the government sectors to make out the lightning protection and disaster mitigation plans and countermeasures, and contribute to reduce the threat and harm of lightning disasters.