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Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (3): 216-220.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-1780

Special Issue: 马铃薯 农业气象

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The Development Period Prediction of Potato Based on Climate Suitability in the Northeastern of Inner Mongolia

  

  • Received:2014-06-25 Revised:2015-01-27 Accepted:2014-07-17 Online:2015-03-19 Published:2015-03-19

Abstract: In order to establish prediction models of potato at different growth stages, the authors used data of daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, sunshine hours, rainfall, soil moisture of 16 weather stations in the Northeastern Inner Mongolia from 2003 to 2012, as well as observation data of potato at different growth stages and related agricultural meteorological index, to calculate temperature suitability, sunshine suitability degree and water suitability degree at different growth stage of potato. Then the climate suitability of potato was researched in different zones in the Northeastern Inner Mongolia, prediction models of potato growth stages were established based on the climate suitability. The results showed that, the average error was within 2 days between simulation number and the actual number of 3 climate areas in the East, the West and the mountain land of the Daxing’an Mountains, average error was within 2 days in each development period. The forecast test results showed that, the forecast error of each developmental stage was within 1 day in each region, except the mountain land of the Daxing’an Mountains, in which the forecasting error was 3.4 days. Therefore, the forecasting models are effective and can contribute to prediction of potato development in the area.