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Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (6): 204-209.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb14100047

Special Issue: 农业气象

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Feature Analysis of Disaster-inducing Risk Index of Frost in Western Region of Liaoning Province

Zhang Li, Yin Hongtao, Zhang Guolin   

  1. (Meteorological Bureau of Chaoyang City, Chaoyang Liaoning 122000)
  • Received:2014-10-16 Revised:2015-01-15 Accepted:2015-01-23 Online:2015-03-20 Published:2015-03-20

Abstract: The paper aims to master the frequency of occurrence and the disaster-inducing risk of frost in western region of Liaoning, establish the disaster-inducing risk level of frost and provide service for agriculture, rural areas and farmers, so as to achieve the purpose of frost prevention and mitigation. The author took the daily lowest temperature data since 1953 to 2012 in Chaoyang District and phenological data of agricultural production as the seeding, emergence and crops mature period, used climate diagnosis analysis method, conducted the feature analysis of the disaster-inducing factors such as time, severity and frequency. The results showed that 80% assurance rate of the end date of frost was on April 27th, and there was an ahead of time trend in inter-annual variation, but it was not significant; the disaster-inducing risk index was 0.41, while the inter-annual variation appeared a downward tendency, the risk index dropped to 0.14 in the past 20 years. 80% assurance of the early frost date was on September 26th, the inter-annual variation was obviously backward delayed and was delayed by an average of 9 days in past 20 years; the disaster-inducing risk index was 0.20, while the inter-annual variation appeared a downward tendency, the risk index was only 0.03 in the past 20 years. Annual frost disaster risk index was 0.47, and disaster-inducing frequency was 75%, the inter-annual variation appeared significantly reducing. The disaster-inducing risk index fell to 0.15 and disaster-inducing frequency to 35% in past 20 years. The division of the risk level and feature analysis of disaster-inducing frost could broaden the meteorological service for ‘agriculture, rural areas and farmers’, and provide the basis for agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation.