Sensitivity and Vulnerability of Flu-cured Tobacco Production to Climate Change in Panxi

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16040008

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the meteorological data and flu-cured tobacco production data from 15 counties in Panxi of Sichuan from 1981 to 2014, the sensitivity and vulnerability of yield for flu-cured tobacco to climatic factors and climate change were estimated by using the regression relationships between changes in yield and climatic variables which could provide important theoretical support for flu-cured tobacco production to address climate change. The results showed that: with a 1℃ warming in growing-season air temperature, 1℃ increase in diurnal temperature range, 100 mm decreased in precipitation, 100 MJ/m2 increased in radiation, yield of the flu-cured tobacco showed increased or decreased to these changes; the area with yield sensitivity was largest to the increase in radiation, which was 51.8% of the total sown area, the yield change was -47.26%~23.53%; the area with yield vulnerability was largest to the increase in minimum temperature, which was 32.0% of the total sown area, the yield change was -38.3%~-7.79%; responses of yield for flu-cured tobacco to climatic factors mainly occurred in transplanting, vigorous growth and maturing stages; the combined effects of the observed trends of the 6 climatic variables caused significant change in roughly 59.8% of the flu-cured tobacco areas, the yield change was 26.3%-36.1%, but with a roughly 28.9% showed yield vulnerability; response of yield for flu-cured tobacco to climate change mainly occurred in vigorous growth and maturing stages; there were big differences in the responses of yield for flu-cured tobacco to the various climatic factors in different countries and different growth stages. Therefore, we need to address the negative impacts of climate change according to local conditions, as well as seize favorable climatic resources during the key growing period, in order to ensure flu-cured tobacco production safety in Panxi.

CLC Number:

S162.3

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