Abstract:

The paper aims to study the reasons for the omissive forecast in western Guangxi and the empty forecast in eastern Guangxi on a rainstorm in June 12, 2018, and provide reference for future forecast. Based on the conventional ground observation data, sounding data and numerical forecast data, the weather situation and the physical quantity field were analyzed. The results showed that the rainstorm process forecast should not only focus on the large circulation situation, but also consider the moisture and energy conditions. The forecasters’ preconceived forecasting ideas and over-reliance on numerical forecast data made the emphasis on the process of other factors different, and the analysis of moisture, energy and dynamic conditions were not fully grasped. When the effect of short-term and medium-term forecast was not good, it could be compensated by short-term forecast.

Key words: forecast error, test, rainstorm, physical quantity