New Characteristics, New Trends and Enlightenment of US Dairy Industry

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2020-0453

Abstract

Abstract:

The U.S. dairy industry has a long history of development, and its long-term accumulated rich experience in production, consumption and even circulation trade has a certain reference value for the revitalization of China’s dairy industry. This paper analyzes the new characteristics of dairy production, price, consumption, trade and other aspects of the U.S. dairy industry since 2000, combs the supporting policies and their changing trends. The study found that in recent years, the number of dairy farms in the United States has dropped sharply, and has been concentrated in the north and the west. Large scale pastures with more than 500 cows have become the mainstream. The number of dairy cows increased. Technological advances have pushed the yield of dairy cows to 10 tons, and the output of fresh milk is close to 1 million tons. A pricing mechanism for milk composition based on grading pricing has been continuously improved. The price of fresh milk has been running at a low level in the past five years and recovered rapidly in 2019. Dairy processing industry is concentrated in leading enterprises. Cheese is the main processing product. The consumption of dairy products increased year by year, with the annual per capita consumption reaching 292.90 kg. Cheese is the main growth point and the growth rate is accelerated. The trade fluctuation of dairy products has increased. The export destinations are concentrated in North America, East Asia and Southeast Asia. The products are mainly milk powder, cheese and whey. The U.S. dairy industry support policy covers the production, consumption, trade and other aspects of the industrial chain. The functions of each policy are complementary and coordinated, forming a strong policy joint force and comprehensive efficiency. The experience and practice of dairy industry of the United States in terms of industrial organization, operation mechanism and policy support have important enlightenment on promoting and improving the interest linkage mechanism of the Chinese dairy industry, optimizing the formation mechanism of fresh milk price, improving the supporting policy system of dairy industry and cultivating the consumption habits of dairy products.

Key words: US dairy industry, milk price system, dairy development policy, hierarchical pricing, interest linkage mechanism

CLC Number:

Zhang Chao, Jiang Yahui, Shao Dafu, Dong Xiaoxia, Dai Peng, Peng Hua. New Characteristics, New Trends and Enlightenment of US Dairy Industry[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2020, 36(31): 130-139.

Figures/Tables 12

项目	养殖规模	1992年	1997年	2002年	2007年	2012年	2017年
奶牛场数量	<50头	93118	63657	48260	34338	34332	28411
	50~99头	41813	33477	25465	18986	15351	12137
	100~199头	14062	12602	10816	8975	7359	6757
	200~499头	4652	4881	4546	4307	3712	3830
	>500头	1694	2257	2902	3284	3344	3464
	总计	155339	116874	91989	69890	64098	54599
占总存栏量比例/%	<50头	20.4	14.5	9.8	7.2	6.3	4
	50~99头	29	24.5	19.1	13.8	11.1	8.6
	100~199头	19	18	15.4	12.8	10.6	9.4
	200~499头	13.7	15.3	14.7	13.8	12	12
	>500头	17.9	27.7	41	52.4	60	66
	总计	100	100	100	100	100	100

等级	计算公式
I级	I级基准价=0.965×I级脱脂牛奶基准价+3.5×高级乳脂价格因子
	$I 级脱脂牛奶基准价 = 高级 III 级脱脂牛奶定价因子 + 高级 IV 级脱脂牛奶定价因子 2 + 0.74 美元$
	高级III级脱脂牛奶定价因子=3.1×高级蛋白价格+5.9×高级其他固形物价格
	高级蛋白价格=1.383×(高级奶酪价格-0.2003)+1.17×[1.572×(高级奶酪价格-0.2003)-0.9×高级乳脂价格因子
	高级其他固形物价格=1.03×(高级乳清粉价格-0.1991)
	高级IV级脱脂牛奶定价因子=9×高级脱脂奶粉价格
	高级脱脂固形物价格=0.99×(高级脱脂奶粉价格-0.1678)
	高级乳脂定价因子=1.211×(高级黄油价格-0.1715)
	I级脱脂牛奶价格=高级IV类脱脂牛奶价格因子+0.70
	$I 级脱脂固形食品价格 = II 级脱脂牛奶价格 9$
II级	II级价格=0.965×II级脱脂乳价格+3.5×II级乳脂价格
	I级脱脂牛奶价格=高级IV类脱脂牛奶价格因子+0.70
	II级乳脂价格=乳脂价格+0.007
	乳脂价格=1.211×(黄油价格-0.1715)
III级	II级价格=0.965×III级脱脂乳价格+3.5×乳脂价格
	II级脱脂牛奶价格=3.1×蛋白质价格+5.9×其他固形物价格
	蛋白质价格=1.383×(奶酪价格-0.2003)+1.17×[1.572×(奶酪价格-0.2003)-0.9×乳脂价格]
	其他固形物料价格=1.03×(干乳清价格-0.1991)
IV级	IV级价格=0.965×IV级脱脂奶价格+3.5×乳脂价格
	IV级脱脂牛奶价格=9×脱脂固形食品价格
	脱脂固形食品价格=0.99×(脱脂奶粉价格-0.1678)

等级	计算公式
I级	I级基准价=0.965×I级脱脂牛奶基准价+3.5×高级乳脂价格因子
	$I 级脱脂牛奶基准价 = 高级 III 级脱脂牛奶定价因子 + 高级 IV 级脱脂牛奶定价因子 2 + 0.74 美元$
	高级III级脱脂牛奶定价因子=3.1×高级蛋白价格+5.9×高级其他固形物价格
	高级蛋白价格=1.383×(高级奶酪价格-0.2003)+1.17×[1.572×(高级奶酪价格-0.2003)-0.9×高级乳脂价格因子
	高级其他固形物价格=1.03×(高级乳清粉价格-0.1991)
	高级IV级脱脂牛奶定价因子=9×高级脱脂奶粉价格
	高级脱脂固形物价格=0.99×(高级脱脂奶粉价格-0.1678)
	高级乳脂定价因子=1.211×(高级黄油价格-0.1715)
	I级脱脂牛奶价格=高级IV类脱脂牛奶价格因子+0.70
	$I 级脱脂固形食品价格 = II 级脱脂牛奶价格 9$
II级	II级价格=0.965×II级脱脂乳价格+3.5×II级乳脂价格
	I级脱脂牛奶价格=高级IV类脱脂牛奶价格因子+0.70
	II级乳脂价格=乳脂价格+0.007
	乳脂价格=1.211×(黄油价格-0.1715)
III级	II级价格=0.965×III级脱脂乳价格+3.5×乳脂价格
	II级脱脂牛奶价格=3.1×蛋白质价格+5.9×其他固形物价格
	蛋白质价格=1.383×(奶酪价格-0.2003)+1.17×[1.572×(奶酪价格-0.2003)-0.9×乳脂价格]
	其他固形物料价格=1.03×(干乳清价格-0.1991)
IV级	IV级价格=0.965×IV级脱脂奶价格+3.5×乳脂价格
	IV级脱脂牛奶价格=9×脱脂固形食品价格
	脱脂固形食品价格=0.99×(脱脂奶粉价格-0.1678)

年份	液态奶	酸奶	黄油	奶酪	炼乳	冰淇淋	奶粉	折合生鲜乳
2000	89.36	2.95	2.03	14.58	2.65	12.49	3.12	269.96
2005	84.37	4.69	2.05	15.41	2.76	11.43	3.38	272.90
2010	80.74	6.10	2.23	15.89	3.26	10.86	2.53	274.36
2015	70.76	6.53	2.54	16.88	3.49	10.55	3.03	285.83
2016	69.85	6.24	2.59	17.50	3.38	10.41	2.68	292.81
2017	68.04	6.23	2.58	17.69	3.12	10.29	2.58	292.46
2018	66.22	6.07	2.63	18.15	3.08	9.83	2.54	292.90

品类	2010年		2015年		2019年
品类	进口量	出口量	进口量	出口量	进口量	出口量
鲜奶	0.87	7.00	0.23	9.89	2.98	13.08
奶粉	3.23	46.70	2.01	61.37	4.46	76.16
酸奶	0.50	2.01	0.21	2.62	2.63	-
乳清	5.37	46.87	5.63	44.11	9.06	43.92
黄油	2.02	5.75	3.42	2.60	-	3.28
奶酪	13.83	17.50	13.03	31.81	18.06	36.25
婴幼儿配方奶粉	0.26	3.51	0.30	3.44	0.33	3.40
合计	26.09	129.35	24.84	155.85	37.53	176.09

排名	奶粉		乳清		奶酪
排名	国家	出口量	国家	出口量	国家	出口量
1	墨西哥	34.25	中国	9.94	墨西哥	9.57
2	菲律宾	7.06	墨西哥	6.76	韩国	6.11
3	印度尼西亚	6.73	菲律宾	3.78	日本	3.81
4	越南	5.55	新西兰	3.04	澳大利亚	2.12
5	哥伦比亚	3.33	加拿大	2.98	智利	1.10
6	马来西亚	2.64	印度尼西亚	2.44	加拿大	1.00
7	秘鲁	2.03	日本	2.23	沙特阿拉伯	0.94
8	智利	1.27	越南	1.51	危地马拉	0.87
9	中国	1.12	韩国	1.48	其他亚洲国家	0.83
10	巴基斯坦	0.94	泰国	1.30	多米尼加	0.82
全球		76.16		43.92		36.25

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