Nowcasting Indicators of Hail Weather Environmental Parameters and Radar Echo in the North of Guanzhong Region

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2022-0361

Abstract

Abstract:

To improve the local hail forecast and natural disaster prevention, based on data from surface meteorological observation, sounding station and dual polarization radar, hail incidents in the north of Guanzhong region from 2011 to 2020 were analyzed. The nowcasting indicators of hail weather environment parameters and radar identification characteristics were summarized. The results showed that hail mainly occurred from May to August in the north of Guanzhong and mostly in June and July. Hailstorm had obvious diurnal variation characteristics, the main stage was 14:00 to 18:00. The warning indexes of unstable conditions for hail were K index≥ 25.0℃, temperature difference between 850 hPa and 500 hPa≥25.3℃, and Schaefer index≤-1.1℃. The warning index of energy condition was convective effective potential energy≥562 J/kg. The warning index of water vapor condition was temperature dew-point difference ≥9.0℃. The early-warning index of vertical wind shear was deep wind vertical shear in 0-6 km≥7.3 m/s or shallow wind vertical shear in 0-3 km≥4.3 m/s. The height warning indexes of special layer were between 3.4-4.0 km for 0℃ layer and 7.2-8.1 km for -20℃ layer, respectively. The identification characteristics of dual-polarization radar were echo intensity equal to or more than 53 dBz, echo top height was more than 10 km, strong echo overhanging height was more than 1.8 km, and three-body scattering spike with length was more than 5.2 km. There was convergence in the lower layer of the velocity field, and the convergence intensity was more than 10.5 m/s. The maximum VIL was more than 15 kg/m², the VIL increment was ≥10 kg/m², and the VIL density was ≥ 2.6 g/m³. Polarization parameters such as differential reflectivity factor, differential propagation phase shift factor and zero delay correlation coefficient also had good indication significance for the recognition of hail. The forecast accuracy of the indicators was high, but there were certain empty predictions.

Key words: hail, sounding data, physical quantity, echo characteristics, nowcasting indicators

LIU Fan, GAO Meng, WANG Jinting, LIU Jun, QIAO Danyang, XIE Yiwen. Nowcasting Indicators of Hail Weather Environmental Parameters and Radar Echo in the North of Guanzhong Region[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2023, 39(11): 98-107.

Figures/Tables 11

References 35

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参数	中位数	平均值	预警指标
参数	中位数	平均值	暖季	4月	5月	6月	7月	8月	9月
K/℃	29	28.3	≥25.0	≥26.0	≥25.3	≥22.0	≥25.0	≥34.3	≥26.3
ΔT₈₅/℃	28	27.5	≥25.3	≥27.0	≥27.4	≥24.7	≥26.0	≥25.7	≥25.9
SI/℃	0.3	0.7	≤-1.1	≤2.0	≤0.2	≤-0.8	≤-1.1	≤-1.4	≤-0.8
CAPE/(J/kg)	1117	1123.9	≥562.0	≥263.5	≥179.5	≥601.3	≥907.3	≥727.5	≥671.3
(T-T_d)₈₅₀/℃	9	9.2	≤6.0	≤5.0	≤8.0	≤7.0	≤5.0	≤2.8	≤6.0
(T-T_d)₅₀₀/℃	17	18.5	≥9.0	≥8.0	≥11.7	≥12.0	≥7.0	≥9.0	≥21.9
VWS/(m/s)	9.9	11.2	≥7.3	≥9.4	≥9.4	≥7.1	≥5.8	≥7.7	≥16.0
VWS’/(m/s)	6	6.4	≥4.3	≥4.6	≥4.9	≥3.4	≥4.4	≥3.5	≥3.3
WBZ/km	3.8	3.8	3.4~4.0	3.0~3.1	3.1~3.4	3.5~3.9	3.8~4.3	3.9~4.6	3.2~3.7
H_-20/km	7.6	7.6	7.2~8.1	6.3~7.0	6.7~7.2	7.3~7.8	7.6~8.2	7.5~8.6	7.2~7.8

参数	中位数	平均值	预警指标
参数	中位数	平均值	暖季	4月	5月	6月	7月	8月	9月
K/℃	29	28.3	≥25.0	≥26.0	≥25.3	≥22.0	≥25.0	≥34.3	≥26.3
ΔT₈₅/℃	28	27.5	≥25.3	≥27.0	≥27.4	≥24.7	≥26.0	≥25.7	≥25.9
SI/℃	0.3	0.7	≤-1.1	≤2.0	≤0.2	≤-0.8	≤-1.1	≤-1.4	≤-0.8
CAPE/(J/kg)	1117	1123.9	≥562.0	≥263.5	≥179.5	≥601.3	≥907.3	≥727.5	≥671.3
(T-T_d)₈₅₀/℃	9	9.2	≤6.0	≤5.0	≤8.0	≤7.0	≤5.0	≤2.8	≤6.0
(T-T_d)₅₀₀/℃	17	18.5	≥9.0	≥8.0	≥11.7	≥12.0	≥7.0	≥9.0	≥21.9
VWS/(m/s)	9.9	11.2	≥7.3	≥9.4	≥9.4	≥7.1	≥5.8	≥7.7	≥16.0
VWS’/(m/s)	6	6.4	≥4.3	≥4.6	≥4.9	≥3.4	≥4.4	≥3.5	≥3.3
WBZ/km	3.8	3.8	3.4~4.0	3.0~3.1	3.1~3.4	3.5~3.9	3.8~4.3	3.9~4.6	3.2~3.7
H_-20/km	7.6	7.6	7.2~8.1	6.3~7.0	6.7~7.2	7.3~7.8	7.6~8.2	7.5~8.6	7.2~7.8

常规雷达参量							偏振参量
CR最大值/ dBZ	悬垂回波高度/km	TBSS长度/ km	低层风辐合强度/(m/s)	ET/ km	ΔVIL/ (kg/m²)	VIL_max/ (kg/m²)	VILD/ (g/m³)	ZDR/ dBz	KDP/ (°/km)
≥53	≥1.8	≥5.2	≥10.5	≥10	≥10	≥15	≥2.6	≤1	≤1

常规雷达参量							偏振参量
CR最大值/ dBZ	悬垂回波高度/km	TBSS长度/ km	低层风辐合强度/(m/s)	ET/ km	ΔVIL/ (kg/m²)	VIL_max/ (kg/m²)	VILD/ (g/m³)	ZDR/ dBz	KDP/ (°/km)
≥53	≥1.8	≥5.2	≥10.5	≥10	≥10	≥15	≥2.6	≤1	≤1

	暖季环境参量预警指标	分月环境参量预警指标	双偏振雷达预警指标
PC	82.6	87.0	73.1
POD	66.7	66.7	100.0
FAR	33.3	20.0	53.8
MAR	33.3	33.3	0