Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2023, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (24): 90-95.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2022-0748
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TIAN Zhihui1(), MOU Dongming2, LI Guang2, LI Xiaoxue1
Received:
2022-08-29
Revised:
2022-12-02
Online:
2023-08-25
Published:
2023-08-23
TIAN Zhihui, MOU Dongming, LI Guang, LI Xiaoxue. Research on the Variation Trend and Cycle of Low Temperature Disasters in China’s Major Grain Producing Areas[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2023, 39(24): 90-95.
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URL: https://www.casb.org.cn/EN/10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2022-0748
省/区 | M-K趋势检验Z值 | 低温灾害变化趋势 |
---|---|---|
安徽省 | 3.06** | 上升 |
河北省 | 1.21 | 上升 |
河南省 | 2.81* | 上升 |
江苏省 | 0.64 | 上升 |
山东省 | 2.68** | 上升 |
黑龙江省 | -0.53 | 下降 |
吉林省 | -1.17 | 下降 |
辽宁省 | -0.68 | 下降 |
内蒙古自治区 | 0.26 | 上升 |
湖北省 | 3.65** | 上升 |
湖南省 | 4.28** | 上升 |
江西 | 3.37** | 上升 |
四川 | 1.72* | 上升 |
省/区 | M-K趋势检验Z值 | 低温灾害变化趋势 |
---|---|---|
安徽省 | 3.06** | 上升 |
河北省 | 1.21 | 上升 |
河南省 | 2.81* | 上升 |
江苏省 | 0.64 | 上升 |
山东省 | 2.68** | 上升 |
黑龙江省 | -0.53 | 下降 |
吉林省 | -1.17 | 下降 |
辽宁省 | -0.68 | 下降 |
内蒙古自治区 | 0.26 | 上升 |
湖北省 | 3.65** | 上升 |
湖南省 | 4.28** | 上升 |
江西 | 3.37** | 上升 |
四川 | 1.72* | 上升 |
项目 | 模态 | 安徽 | 河北 | 河南 | 江苏 | 山东 | 黑龙江 | 吉林 | 辽宁 | 内蒙古 | 湖北 | 湖南 | 江西 | 四川 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
周期/a | IMF1 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.8 |
IMF2 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 5.0 | |
IMF3 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 17.0 | 8.2 | |
IMF4 | 22.0 | 29.0 | 35.0 | 24.0 | 27.0 | 22.0 | 25.0 | 22.0 | 16.0 | 32.0 | 15.0 | — | 16.5 | |
IMF5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 28.0 | |
方差贡献率/% | IMF1 | 30.1 | 29.4 | 28.3 | 30.9 | 30.6 | 29.2 | 29.8 | 26.6 | 31.8 | 36.0 | 33.4 | 46.0 | 28.0 |
IMF2 | 26.1 | 22.4 | 23.6 | 28.5 | 21.7 | 21.4 | 22.3 | 24.0 | 23.2 | 27.8 | 22.9 | 25.5 | 18.4 | |
IMF3 | 19.8 | 19.3 | 20.8 | 18.8 | 20.1 | 19.5 | 19.9 | 19.7 | 18.9 | 18.8 | 17.6 | 15.7 | 16.5 | |
IMF4 | 16.3 | 17.9 | 18.2 | 13.1 | 15.2 | 16.7 | 16.0 | 16.9 | 14.8 | 9.3 | 14.2 | — | 15.0 | |
IMF5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13.4 | |
RES | 7.7 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 11.3 | 8.1 | 12 | 12.8 | 8.8 |
项目 | 模态 | 安徽 | 河北 | 河南 | 江苏 | 山东 | 黑龙江 | 吉林 | 辽宁 | 内蒙古 | 湖北 | 湖南 | 江西 | 四川 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
周期/a | IMF1 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.8 |
IMF2 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 5.0 | |
IMF3 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 17.0 | 8.2 | |
IMF4 | 22.0 | 29.0 | 35.0 | 24.0 | 27.0 | 22.0 | 25.0 | 22.0 | 16.0 | 32.0 | 15.0 | — | 16.5 | |
IMF5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 28.0 | |
方差贡献率/% | IMF1 | 30.1 | 29.4 | 28.3 | 30.9 | 30.6 | 29.2 | 29.8 | 26.6 | 31.8 | 36.0 | 33.4 | 46.0 | 28.0 |
IMF2 | 26.1 | 22.4 | 23.6 | 28.5 | 21.7 | 21.4 | 22.3 | 24.0 | 23.2 | 27.8 | 22.9 | 25.5 | 18.4 | |
IMF3 | 19.8 | 19.3 | 20.8 | 18.8 | 20.1 | 19.5 | 19.9 | 19.7 | 18.9 | 18.8 | 17.6 | 15.7 | 16.5 | |
IMF4 | 16.3 | 17.9 | 18.2 | 13.1 | 15.2 | 16.7 | 16.0 | 16.9 | 14.8 | 9.3 | 14.2 | — | 15.0 | |
IMF5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13.4 | |
RES | 7.7 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 11.3 | 8.1 | 12 | 12.8 | 8.8 |
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