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Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2023, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (24): 90-95.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2022-0748

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Research on the Variation Trend and Cycle of Low Temperature Disasters in China’s Major Grain Producing Areas

TIAN Zhihui1(), MOU Dongming2, LI Guang2, LI Xiaoxue1   

  1. 1 Department of Landscape Design & Forestry, Beijing University of Agriculture, Beijing 102206
    2 Agricultural and Rural Development Service Center of Liaocheng, Shandong Province, Liaocheng, Shandong 252000
  • Received:2022-08-29 Revised:2022-12-02 Online:2023-08-25 Published:2023-08-23

Abstract:

Based on the crop disaster rate of low-temperature disaster in major grain producing areas from 1971 to 2016, the variation trend and cycle of low temperature disaster were analyzed by Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend test, Mann-Kendall mutation test and empirical mode decomposition (EMD), so as to provide a theoretical basis for reducing the risk and loss of low-temperature disasters in major grain producing areas. The results showed that: (1) the crop disaster rate of low-temperature disaster had a significant increasing trend in Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Sichuan, Anhui, Henan and Shandong Provinces. (2) The mutation time of crop disaster rate of low- temperature disaster mainly occurred in the late 1980s, the early 1990s and the late 1990s. The period of significant increasing trend mainly occurred from late 1990s to early 21st century. (3) Low temperature disasters had the characteristics of quasi-3 years, quasi-6 years, quasi 11 years and quasi-24-year periods. However, it was mainly based on the quasi-3 years as the main fluctuation cycle.

Key words: major grain producing areas, low temperature disaster, disaster rate, trend, cycle