Abstract:

This research is focused on the distribution of Ziziphus jujube in Tuha Basin. Based on the geographical distribution and environmental variables, Maxent was used to construct a model and ArcGIS software was used to predict the geographical distribution pattern of Z. jujube, and their potential suitable areas under current and future climate conditions were studied in combination with the current production status. In order to provide scientific basis for the development planning and regional development arrangement of Z. jujube industry in Tuha Basin, various degrees of suitable areas were divided according to the suitability index generated by Maxent model. According to the model prediction based on the current and future climate conditions, the areas unsuitable for planting Z. jujube in Tuha Basin would be mostly mountainous or high-altitude areas. The comparison with the topographic map indicated that the suitable areas for Z. jujube were mainly concentrated in the low-altitude and the transition areas from mountains to plains and basins. In the prediction models, elevation could be admitted as an important environmental factor, which might bring a great influence on the species distribution probability.

Key words: potential suitable areas, Maxent, climate change, Tuha Basin, Ziziphus jujube, species distribution