Abstract:

The highland barley is the main food crop on the Tibetan Plateau, and its growth and yield is highly sensitive to climate change. To adapt to climate change, ensure food security on the plateau, and promote the high-quality development of the highland barley industry, based on the data on the development stage (DVS) of spring highland barley in Xizagê and the daily meteorological data on the average temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration collected from 1992 to 2024, the response of DVS of highland barley to climate change in the recent 33 years was analyzed, and the leading meteorological factors influencing DVS were also identified through several statistical methods such as climate trend, Pearson correlation coefficients, Mann-Kendall, Cramer and stepwise regression method. The results showed that: (1) the dates of various development stages of spring highland barley have delayed significantly at a rate of 2.77-9.64 days per decade, with the dough stage delaying the most, and the maturity stage delaying the least. The length of vegetative growth period (VGP) was slightly prolonged (0.62 d/10a), and the length of reproductive growth period (RGP) and whole growth period (WGP) was significantly shortened, with a rate of 3.63 days and 3.62 days per decade, respectively. (2) About 90% abrupt change in the delays of development stages occurred around 2010. Except for the sowing to three leaf stage, the abrupt change in the length of each development stage mainly occurred at the beginning of the 21st century. No abrupt change in the lengths of the VGP and WGP were identified, while the length of the RGP underwent a turning point from long to short growth period in 2013. (3) The slight increase in sunshine duration was identified as leading factor causing the extension of VGP length. The significant shortened length of RGP was attributed to the combined effects of a noticeable decrease in precipitation and a significant rise in temperature, and the significant increase in temperature led to the significant shortened length of WGP. The above results indicate that climate warming will shorten the whole growth period of highland barley and has an impact on yield formation. It is necessary to optimize planting management and breeding high-temperature resistant varieties to cope with climate change.

Key words: spring highland barley, growth period, climate trend rate, climate abrupt, Xizagê