Abstract:

The objective of this study is to explore the agro meteorological conditions and suitable climatic zoning of rice cultivation under the complex mountainous terrain of Zhijin County. The correlation between rice meteorological yield and meteorological factors was analyzed by mathematical statistics, the key meteorological factors affecting the growth and development of rice were screened out, a localized rice meteorological yield forecast model was established, and the forecast results were tested. At the same time, according to the meteorological data and disaster weather data, combined with various disaster indicators, the zoning map of rice planting suitability in Zhijin County was comprehensively drawn. The result showed that eight meteorological factors, including average temperature and sunshine hours in late May, precipitation in late June, precipitation and sunshine hours in mid-July, average temperature and precipitation in early August, and precipitation in early September, had the best correlation with the growth and development of rice in Zhijin County. The average forecast accuracy of the established localized forecasting model is more than 90%, and the forecast results are credible, which is suitable for localized yield forecasting. The zoning map of rice climate suitability showed that the climate of southern and western townships in the central part of Zhijin County was the most suitable for rice planting, while the suitability of rice planting in the northern and eastern towns was poor. The prediction model established in this study has good prediction ability for rice yield in Zhijin County. The generated climate suitability zoning map clearly reveals regional differences, which can provide an intuitive decision-making basis for optimizing local rice planting layout, avoiding meteorological disaster risk and improving yield level.

Key words: meteorological factors, rice yield forecast, Suitability, zoning map, meteorological indicators