Abstract:

Based on disaster data from 2009 to 2020, this study comprehensively constructed a disaster loss index (DLI) and employed methods including linear regression and Mann-Kendall trend test, combined with spatial hotspot analysis in ArcGIS, to reveal the spatiotemporal characteristics of agrometeorological disaster losses in Guizhou in recent years, thereby providing scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation. The results showed that: (1) from 2009 to 2020, agricultural meteorological disaster losses in Guizhou generally exhibited a spatial distribution pattern with higher severity in the western, northern, and eastern regions compared to the central and southern areas, among which Bijie City emerged as a multi-hazard overlap zone affected by all four disaster types; (2) from 2009 to 2020, the annual average DLI in Guizhou exhibited the following order: drought (0.23) > flood (0.11) > wind and hail (0.05) > low-temperature freezing and snow (0.03). Drought was the most severe agricultural meteorological hazard affecting Guizhou, displaying a northwest-high and southeast-low spatial pattern. Notably, 99% of counties showed declining trends in drought losses, with over 50% reaching statistically significant levels; (3) in Guizhou, the high-value zones of disaster losses from flood, low-temperature freezing and snow were distributed in the western, northern, and southeastern marginal regions. 94.3% of areas showed a decreasing trend in the area affected by low-temperature freezing and snow, which was higher than the proportion for flood (64.8%). Flood exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity, with an increasing trend observed in the central, northwestern, and southern marginal regions, while the affected area also expanding eastward. The proportion of areas with an increasing trend for complete crop failure area due to both flood and low-temperature freezing and snow was higher than that for the affected area, indicating an increase in the extremality of the disasters; (4) western Guizhou served as both a hotspot for wind-hail disaster losses and a high-value zone of loss increase rates. Overall, the high-risk areas for agrometeorological disaster in Guizhou were located in the western, northern and eastern regions. Although the DLI had generally showed a downward trend, the extreme destructiveness of the disasters had increased.

Key words: Guizhou, disaster loss index (DLI), agrometeorological disaster loss, spatial and temporal distribution characteristics