Abstract:

This paper analyzed the food security issue under the assumption of reduction of cultivated land based on China agricultural general equilibrium model (CGE). The results show that reduction of cultivated grain land could result in the fluctuation of price index of CPI, price index of GDP, price index of investment and price index of export, bring the result of investment, capital and real GDP reduction, directly effect employment, real wages, nominal wages, household disposable income, make household consumption and government consumption reduction. RMB appreciation, tariff revenue reduction, net exports contribution to GDP decreased, national macroeconomic situation deteriorated. Therefore, the red line of 1.2 billion hm2 of cultivated land must be kept to ensure national food security.