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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (27): 132-138.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-0021

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田间肥效试验数据的频率分析和施肥决策

李洪文   

  1. 云南省双柏县农业技术推广服务中心（土壤肥料工作站）
  • 收稿日期:2014-01-02 修回日期:2014-01-02 接受日期:2014-03-24 出版日期:2014-10-15 发布日期:2014-10-15
  • 通讯作者: 李洪文
  • 基金资助:
    国家测土配方施肥财政补贴项目资金(云财农[2009]2045)。

Frequency Analysis and Fertilization Decision Data Field Fertilizer Efficiency Test

  • Received:2014-01-02 Revised:2014-01-02 Accepted:2014-03-24 Online:2014-10-15 Published:2014-10-15

摘要： 为解决农业试验统计分析软件、扬州分析器(2.2)、Excel进行回归分析建立的部分非典型性肥料效应方程推荐的施肥量出现异常偏大、偏低甚至负值，脱离当地生产实际的问题。本文应用概率理论的基本知识和频数的原理和方法，对油菜田间肥效试验数据应用频率分析法进行统计分析，得到的油菜优化施肥量产量为1732.4 kg/hm2，氮、磷、钾优化组合范围分别为210.36~149.64 kg/hm2、81.89~58.11 kg/hm2、81.89~58.11 kg/hm2，与试验地（田）和当地生产实际相吻合。本研究是在频率分析的基础上，用加权平均方法，确定各种不同产量目标的生产因素组合，将其中产量高，出现频率大（稳产），用肥节省的组合作为优化生产措施，具有增加施肥决策信息量，减少或避免小概率事件的风险的优点。可解决肥效试验数据分析统计汇总，应用扬州分析器(2.2)、Excel、DPS等统计分析软件进行回归分析建立的部分非典型肥料效应函数推荐的施肥量和目标产量出现异常值，与当地生产实际不相符的问题。肥料效应函数方程经方差分析不显著的试验，能否应用该研究方法进行施肥决策，推荐氮、磷、钾肥料优化组合和优化施肥量产量，还需在以后的工作实践中进一步探讨。

关键词: 气候, 气候, 降雨量, 蒸发量

Abstract: The part of fertilizer effect of atypical equation recommended by agricultural experiments and statistical analysis software, Yangzhou analyzer (2.2), regression analysis of Excel fertilization appears abnormal low, even negative, from the local production of practical problems. The study adopted the principle and method of basic knowledge and the frequency of using probability theory and carried out statistical analysis on the rape field fertilizer experiment data by frequency analysis method, the optimal fertilization rape yield was 1732.4 kg/hm2, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium optimization combination ranges were 210.36- 149.64 kg/hm2, 81.89-58.11 kg/hm2, 81.89-58.11 kg/hm2, coincided with testing (Tian) and local production reality. This research is based on frequency analysis, using the weighted average method with production factors to determine the different target yield, and took the high yield, stable frequency of high yield and optimizing of production measures as the combination of fertilizer saving to increase the advantage of fertilization decision-making, therefore reduce or avoid the risk of low probability. The results of this study could solve the problem of abnormal values caused by Yangzhou analyzer (2.2), regression analysis of Excel, and DPS statistical analysis software. The function of fertilizer effect equation by the analysis of variance test was not significant, and the application of the research methods of fertilization and the recommended optimization of fertilization of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium still need to practice in further study.