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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (25): 241-246.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15020069

所属专题： 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

陕西省暴雨灾害风险实时评估技术研究

李茜,蔡新玲,徐军昶,雷向杰   

  1. 陕西省气候中心,陕西省气候中心,西安市气象局,陕西省气候中心
  • 收稿日期:2015-02-11 修回日期:2015-07-22 接受日期:2015-07-01 出版日期:2015-09-23 发布日期:2015-09-23
  • 通讯作者: 李茜
  • 基金资助:
    ：陕西省科技发展计划项目“陕西暴雨灾害损失与影响预估研究”(2012K12-03-02)；陕西省气象局科技创新基金计划项目“延安地区2013 年7 月连续暴雨致灾特点分析”(2015M-2)；中国气象局现代气候业务建设试点项目“暴雨洪涝灾害风险普查”。

Research on Real-time Risk Assessment of Rainstorm in Shaanxi Province

  • Received:2015-02-11 Revised:2015-07-22 Accepted:2015-07-01 Online:2015-09-23 Published:2015-09-23

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摘要： 为了加强对高危地区的暴雨灾害防御指导，对陕西省暴雨灾害进行实时定量评估。利用陕西省自动站实时暴雨数据、历年暴雨灾情数据、地理数据和社会经济数据，采用主成分分析法、层次分析法等，给出了暴雨致灾因子、孕灾环境脆弱度、承载体脆弱度和抗灾力4 个指标，并结合GIS 技术，构建了陕西省农业暴雨灾害风险度实时评估模型。通过对2011 年陕西省典型暴雨灾害实时风险度进行验证检验，表明该模型的评估结果与实际灾情较为一致。

关键词: 鱼类, 鱼类, 碳水化合物, 葡萄糖激酶, 6-磷酸果糖激酶-1, 丙酮酸激酶

Abstract: The research aims to quantitatively assess the rainstorm disaster in real-time and provide effective guidance for the high- risk areas on rainstorm in Shaanxi Province. Based on the meteorological data of rainstorm in Shaanxi, the historical rainstorm disastrous data, the geographic data and the socio-economic data, the authors used the principal component analysis, entropy method and hierarchy process analysis to obtain the rainstorm disaster- inducing factor, hazard inducing environment vulnerability, bearing body vulnerability and resistance capacity. Meanwhile, combined with the GIS technology, the real- time risk assessment model of the rainstorm disaster was built in Shaanxi Province. The model was applied to the typical rainstorm disaster verification in 2011, and the assessment results were consistent with the actual disaster situation.