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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (18): 235-239.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15030119

所属专题： 现代农业发展与乡村振兴

• 三农研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国非正规金融对农村经济增长的影响——基于VAR模型的实证分析

王 颖,林 飞,刘江蒙   

  1. (上海海洋大学,上海 201306）
  • 收稿日期:2015-03-14 修回日期:2015-04-16 接受日期:2015-04-20 出版日期:2015-07-27 发布日期:2015-07-27
  • 通讯作者: 林飞
  • 基金资助:
    上海市教委创新基金“教学改革研究”(A-2600-12-0010)。

Influence of China’s Informal Finance on Rural Economic Growth: Based on VAR Model

Wang Ying, Lin Fei, Liu Jiangmeng   

  1. (Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306)
  • Received:2015-03-14 Revised:2015-04-16 Accepted:2015-04-20 Online:2015-07-27 Published:2015-07-27

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摘要： 以中国非正规金融与农村经济增长的关系为着手点，基于VAR模型，并且利用2004—2013年间关于农村非正规金融发展规模以及农村经济发展的相关数据，对它们的相关性进行实证分析。通过Grange因果关系检验表明，中国非正规金融与农村经济增长之间存在单向的因果关系。非正规金融对农村经济增长起着促进作用，同时也存在发展空间不足、缺乏规范、政策支持不够等问题，在此基础上提出增加非正规金融法律与制度保障、加强非正规金融的内部控制、加大非正规金融的政策支持力度以及吸收国外非正规金融发展经验等建议。

关键词: ‘冬枣’, ‘冬枣’, 种子萌发, 下胚轴, 愈伤组织

Abstract: With the relationship between informal finance and rural economic growth in China as a starting point, this paper made an empirical research on the relevance between informal financial development scale and rural economic development with Chinese data from 2004 to 2013 based on vector auto-regression model (VAR).The results of Grange Causality Test showed that informal finance and rural economic growth were Grange causes for each other. The informal finance played a promoting role on rural economic growth, but also had problems of inadequate space for development, lack of standard, inadequate policy support, etc. On the basis of this, the author put forward proposals like improving the legal and institutional guarantee of informal finance, strengthening the internal control of informal finance, increasing the policy support to informal finance and the absorption of foreign informal finance development experience.