关键词: 土地整治规划, 土地整治规划, 效益评价, 层次分析法, 伊通满族自治县

Abstract: Under the background of the historical climate change of Henan Province from 1951 to 2012, the author carried out quantitative research on the impact of climatic factors change on the productivity of winter wheat and corn corresponding to their different growth periods. Using the historical meteorological data provided by the national weather service site, the author drew the contour map of average temperature and precipitation with wavelet coefficients based on Matlab and Surfer 8.0. By quadratic function fitting trend yield, the author isolated the historical meteorological yield of winter wheat and corn. After stepwise regression analysis by SPSS, the author built a regression model which contained climate yield as the dependent variable, climate factors of different growth periods as independent variables. The results showed that: (1) in the change process of annual precipitation in Henan Province, there were multiple time scale features, the small wave center in 36-58 years, 15-35 years and 8-14 years appeared alternately plus or minus, showing a periodic change rule; on 18 years scale, the average annual temperature stayed in an rising trend till 2012; (2) for winter wheat, under the condition that other independent variables remained the same, the precipitation increase 1 mm during its overwintering period, the meteorological yield would reduce 2.21 thousand tons; the average temperature of overwintering stage increase 1℃, the meteorological yield would reduce 132.77 thousand tons; the precipitation increase 1 mm during the second growth stage , meteorological yield woud reduce 1.49 thousand tons; (3) for corn, under the condition that other independent variables remained the same, the precipitation increase 1 mm during its vegetative growth period, meteorological yield would reduce 0.03 thousand tons, the average temperature of the vegetative stage increase 1℃, the meteorological yield would reduce 63.89 thousand tons; the precipitation increased 1 mm during its reproductive stage, meteorological yield would reduce 1.59 thousand tons. As a whole, the influences of both temperature and precipitation changes on meteorological yield were negative. And the influence of temperature change on food production was more significant than that of precipitation change. Comparing the two regression models, the author found that the winter wheat had higher sensitivity to climate change than corn..