关键词: 水资源, 水资源, 承载力, 发展, 湖北省

Abstract: Based on daily air temperature and precipitation data from 1959 to 2010, local economy, population, farmland and the recent 10 years’ disaster survey, the author analyzed the climate, geography and social economy that would affect the forming of drought. By applying of weighted composite method and risk index method, the auhtor established a related evaluation model and finished the zoning map by making use of GIS. The zoning results suggested that: the drought risk index of Suining City was 0.42-1.24, whose feature was that the north part was higher than the south part. The high risk parts were mainly the most part of Shehong and central Pengxi to eatern Chuanshan. And around major rivers and reservoirs like Fujiang River, Qijiang River, Qiongiang River, Zhixihe River, Zijiang River and Chichenghu Lake were the low risk parts. According to the evaluation results and the real facts in Suining City, the author put forward 3 strategies to resist drought and reduce disaster in the purpose of providing a reference for further upgrading the drought resisitance and disaster reduction capacity of hilly areas.