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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (26): 131-137.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16020057

所属专题： 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

南京局地气候系统反演建模研究

卢 鹏   

  1. (江苏省气候中心,南京 210009）
  • 收稿日期:2016-02-19 修回日期:2016-03-01 接受日期:2016-03-25 出版日期:2016-09-21 发布日期:2016-09-21
  • 通讯作者: 卢鹏
  • 基金资助:
    国家973计划项目“气候变暖背景下我国南方旱涝灾害的变化规律和机理及影响与对策”(2013CB430200)；江苏气象科研基金“多海区海温共同作用对江苏夏季降水的影响”(Q201402)；国家自然基金“三氟化氮辐射强迫、全球增温潜能与全球温变潜能的研究”(41305132)。

Inverse Modeling of Local Climate System in Nanjing

Lu Peng   

  1. (Jiangsu Climate Center, Nanjing 210009)
  • Received:2016-02-19 Revised:2016-03-01 Accepted:2016-03-25 Online:2016-09-21 Published:2016-09-21

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摘要： 为了研究南京局地气候动力系统的演变，利用无量纲处理后的南京站1951—2013年逐年云量、气温和降水资料，采用反演建模方法，构建了1951—2013年南京局地气候模型，并对南京局地气候模型的各项系数进行了初步的物理解释。结果发现，南京局地气候模型中云量指数的变化与云量指数、降水指数和降水指数的二次项有关；气温指数的变化与气温指数、云量指数、降水指数和气温指数的二次项有关；降水指数的变化与降水指数、云量指数和降水指数的二次项有关。以每30年的数据反演局地气候模型，发现非线性部分系数呈减小趋势，其中利用1961—1990年和1962—1991年数据的反演结果中，云量和降水变化方程中降水二次项系数都发生了突变。线性部分在气候态附近保持稳定。

关键词: 循环曝气地下滴灌, 循环曝气地下滴灌, 土壤类型, 冬小麦, 耗水特性, 作物产量

Abstract: The paper aims to study the evolution of Nanjing local climate dynamic system, the cloud cover, temperature and precipitation data with dimensionless treatment in Nanjing during 1951-2013 were used to built Nanjing local climate model by using inverse model method, and a preliminary physical interpretation of all coefficients of Nanjing local climate model was conducted. The study showed that: the change of cloud cover index was related with cloud cover index, precipitation index and square of precipitation index; the change of temperature index was related with temperature index, cloud cover index, precipitation index and square of temperature index; the change of precipitation index was related with precipitation index, cloud cover index and square of precipitation index. By studying the evolution of local climate model using each 30-year data, it was found that the coefficient of the nonlinear part had a decreasing trend, and the models of 1961-1990 and 1962-1991 showed a mutation in square of precipitation index in cloud cover and precipitation change equations. In linear part, it kept stable near climate state.

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