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中国农学通报 ›› 2020, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (14): 107-112.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb18120126

所属专题: 农业气象

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化对柴达木盆地主要农作物产量的影响

王发科, 雷玉红, 都占良, 蔡玉琴   

  1. 青海省格尔木市气象局,青海格尔木 816099
  • 收稿日期:2018-12-29 修回日期:2019-03-16 出版日期:2020-05-15 发布日期:2020-05-20
  • 作者简介:王发科,男,1969年出生,甘肃渭源人,副研级高级工程师,本科,主要从事农业气象、农业生态等方面的研究。通信地址:816099 青海省格尔木市大众路17号 格尔木市气象局,Tel:0979-8493152,E-mail: gemwkai@sina.com。

Climate Change Affects Major Crops’ Yield in Qaidam Basin

Wang Fake, Lei Yuhong, Du Zhanliang, Cai Yuqin   

  1. Meteorological Bureau of Golmud City, Goldmud Qinghai 816099
  • Received:2018-12-29 Revised:2019-03-16 Online:2020-05-15 Published:2020-05-20

摘要:

为合理利用气候资源,提高农作物生产潜力提供科学依据,利用柴达木盆地1991—2017年气温、降水量和主要农作物(小麦、油菜)产量等资料,应用数理统计方法,分析了该区近27年来主要的气候因子(气温和降水)、作物产量的变化特征以及气候因子对农作物产量的影响。结果表明:(1)1991—2017年柴达木盆地年平均气温升高显著,升温率为0.5℃/10 a,降水呈略增加趋势,增幅为16.5 mm/10 a,气候趋于暖湿化。(2)农作物产量增加趋势明显,小麦平均每年增加73.0 kg/hm 2,油菜平均每年增加37.9 kg/hm 2;相对气象产量小麦年际正负变化较明显,油菜年际正负变化较频繁。(3)农作物产量与年平均气温、年降水量存在着显著的相关性,气温每升高1.0℃,小麦产量增加845.8 kg/hm 2,油菜产量增加454.5 kg/hm 2;降水量每增加10 mm,小麦产量增加140.0 kg/hm 2,油菜产量增加74.0 kg/hm 2,气温对农作物产量影响较降水大。

关键词: 柴达木盆地, 气候变化, 农作物产量, 影响

Abstract:

To provide scientific support for making use of climatic resources rationally and improving the potential of crop production, the data of temperature, precipitation and yield of main crops (wheat, rape) in Qaidam Basin from 1991 to 2017 were used to analyze the main climatic factors (temperature and precipitation), the variation characteristics of crop yield and the influence of climate factors on crop yield by mathematical statistics method. The results showed that: (1) the annual average temperature in the Qaidam Basin increased significantly from 1991 to 2017, with a warming rate of 0.5℃/10 a, and a slight increase in precipitation of 16.5 mm/10 a, the climate tended to be warm and wet; (2) the increase trend of crop yield was obvious, the average annual increase of wheat was 73.0 kg/hm 2, the average annual increase of rape was 37.9 kg/hm 2; the interannual change of wheat relative to meteorological yield was obvious, and that of rape was more frequent; (3) there was a significant correlation between the crop yield and annual average temperature and annual precipitation, when the temperature increased by 1.0℃, the wheat yield increased by 845.8 kg/hm 2, the rape yield increased by 454.5 kg/hm 2; for every 10 mm increase of precipitation, the wheat yield increased by 140.0 kg/hm 2and the rape yield increased by 74.0 kg/hm 2, the effect of temperature on crop yield was greater than that of precipitation.

Key words: Qaidam Basin, climate change, crop yield, effect

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