气候变化对西北地区不同气候类型区春小麦生长的影响

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2020-0012

中国农学通报 ›› 2020, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (35): 78-87.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2020-0012

所属专题：小麦；农业气象

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇下一篇

气候变化对西北地区不同气候类型区春小麦生长的影响

杨阳¹(), 马绎皓²(), 赵鸿¹, 齐月¹, 王润元¹, 张凯¹, 王鹤龄¹

¹中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,中国气象局干旱变化与减灾重点开放实验室,兰州 730020
²皋兰县气象局,兰州 730200

收稿日期:2020-04-17 修回日期:2020-08-22 出版日期:2020-12-15 发布日期:2020-12-18
通讯作者: 马绎皓
作者简介:杨阳,女,1992年出生,内蒙古锡林郭勒人,研究实习员,硕士,研究方向为农业气象。通信地址：730020 甘肃省兰州市城关区东岗东路2070号中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,E-mail： yangyy120300@163.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目“典型半干旱雨养区降雨过程对马铃薯农田干旱的解除效应及其调控机制”(41975151);干旱气象科学研究基金“干旱胁迫对半干旱雨养区春小麦光响应过程的”(IAM201912)

Impact of Climate Change on Spring Wheat Growth in Different Climate Types in Northwest China

Yang Yang¹(), Ma Yihao²(), Zhao Hong¹, Qi Yue¹, Wang Runyuan¹, Zhang Kai¹, Wang Heling¹

¹Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA, Lanzhou 730020
²Gaolan County Meteorological Bureau, Lanzhou 730020

Received:2020-04-17 Revised:2020-08-22 Online:2020-12-15 Published:2020-12-18
Contact: Ma Yihao

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以直接研究观测到气候变化对作物发育和产量的影响,可以为评估气候变化对作物生产影响提供更准确的信息。利用西北地区特干旱（敦煌）、干旱（武威）、半干旱（定西）、半湿润（临夏）、湿润（岷县）5个案例区1981(1986)—2017年地面观测数据,分析气象变化趋势,确定春小麦生长、产量与气候因子的关系。结果表明,1981—2017年间,5个案例区的气候变化模式及其对春小麦物候和产量的影响在空间和时间上是不同的。除极端干旱地区出现较暖和较潮湿的趋势,其他地区观测到较暖和较干燥的趋势。相关分析表明,1981(1986)—2017年武威、定西、临夏站春小麦产量呈增加趋势,但变化趋势除武威站外均不显著,其中武威站生育期内≥30℃天数的减少致使武威站近37年来产量增加,而定西站生育期内降水增多、每穗粒数显著增多及不孕小穗数的显著减少致使定西站近32年产量呈增加趋势。预计随着全球气温的持续升高和未来降水格局的变化,将进一步影响中国西北地区春小麦生产。

关键词: 西北地区, 气候变化, 春小麦, 生长, 物候学

Abstract:

To study the impacts of observed climate change on crop development and yield could provide more accurate information for assessing the effect of climate change on crop production. In this study, we used ground observation data from five case areas including extreme drought (Dunhuang), arid (Wuwei), semi-arid (Dingxi), semi-humid (Linxia), and humid (Mixian) in northwest China’s 1981(1986)-2017 to analyze the meteorological trends and determine the relationship between spring wheat growth, yield and climatic factors. The results showed that the climate change patterns and their impacts on spring wheat phenology and yield in these stations were diverse both spatially and temporally during the period of 1981-2017. Except the warmer and wetter trends in extreme arid regions, warmer and drier trends were observed in other regions. Correlation analysis showed that spring wheat production in Wuwei, Dingxi and Linxia stations increased in 1981 (1986)-2017, but the change trend was not significant except Wuwei station. The decrease of days ≥30℃ during the wheat growth period in Wuwei station increased the output in Wuwei station in the 37 years, however, the increase of precipitation during the wheat growth period, more grains per panicle and obviously fewer infertile spikelets in Dingxi station increased the output in Dingxi station in the recent 32 years. It is estimated that the global warming trend and change in precipitation pattern will further impact the production and yield of spring wheat in northwest China.

Key words: northwest China, climate change, spring wheat, growth, phenology

中图分类号:

杨阳, 马绎皓, 赵鸿, 齐月, 王润元, 张凯, 王鹤龄. 气候变化对西北地区不同气候类型区春小麦生长的影响[J]. 中国农学通报, 2020, 36(35): 78-87.

Yang Yang, Ma Yihao, Zhao Hong, Qi Yue, Wang Runyuan, Zhang Kai, Wang Heling. Impact of Climate Change on Spring Wheat Growth in Different Climate Types in Northwest China[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2020, 36(35): 78-87.

图/表 9

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气候类型	典型测站	海拔高度/m	经度/E	纬度/N	年降水量/mm	年平均气温/℃	灌溉模式	数据时间
超干旱	敦煌	1139	94°41′	40°09′	40.2	9.5	灌溉	1981–2008
干旱	武威	1531	102°40′	37°55′	175.6	8.9	灌溉	1981–2017
半干旱	定西	1897	104°37′	35°35′	365.7	6.5	雨养	1986–2017
半湿润	临夏	1917	103°11′	35°35′	501.4	7.2	灌溉	1981–2017
湿润	岷县	2315	104°01′	34°26′	600.0	6.9	雨养	1987–2004

气候类型	典型测站	海拔高度/m	经度/E	纬度/N	年降水量/mm	年平均气温/℃	灌溉模式	数据时间
超干旱	敦煌	1139	94°41′	40°09′	40.2	9.5	灌溉	1981–2008
干旱	武威	1531	102°40′	37°55′	175.6	8.9	灌溉	1981–2017
半干旱	定西	1897	104°37′	35°35′	365.7	6.5	雨养	1986–2017
半湿润	临夏	1917	103°11′	35°35′	501.4	7.2	灌溉	1981–2017
湿润	岷县	2315	104°01′	34°26′	600.0	6.9	雨养	1987–2004

案例区	年平均气温/(℃/10 a)	最高气温/(℃/10 a)	最低气温/(℃/10 a)	年降水量/(mm/10 a)
敦煌	0.62^**	0.94^**	-0.24	2.50
武威	0.88^**	1.22^**	1.31	-7.16
定西	0.94^**	0.68^**	1.04^*	-10.66
临夏	0.48^**	0.76^**	0.32^*	-20.30^*
岷县	0.80^**	1.06^*	1.26	-52.70

案例区	年平均气温/(℃/10 a)	最高气温/(℃/10 a)	最低气温/(℃/10 a)	年降水量/(mm/10 a)
敦煌	0.62^**	0.94^**	-0.24	2.50
武威	0.88^**	1.22^**	1.31	-7.16
定西	0.94^**	0.68^**	1.04^*	-10.66
临夏	0.48^**	0.76^**	0.32^*	-20.30^*
岷县	0.80^**	1.06^*	1.26	-52.70

案例区	播种期	拔节期	开花期	成熟期	生长期
敦煌	-0.79	-2.23^*	-3.08^**	-0.53	-1.44
武威	1.21^*	-0.15	-2.00^**	-2.01^**	-3.26^**
定西	1.80^*	0.17	-0.56	-0.61	-2.41^*
临夏	0.24	0.19	-2.26^**	-2.80^**	-3.04^**
岷县	2.63	-7.93^**	-5.81^**	-6.04^*	-8.84^**

气候变化对西北地区不同气候类型区春小麦生长的影响

Impact of Climate Change on Spring Wheat Growth in Different Climate Types in Northwest China

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案例区	每穗粒数/(-/10 a)	千粒重/(g/10 a)	不孕穗数/(-/10 a)	产量/(g/m²·10 a)
敦煌	6.64^*	-1.59	-8.68^**	64.39^**
武威	-1.10	-2.08^**	0.84	63.45^**
定西	6.28^**	1.70	-0.59^**	6.69
临夏	3.02^*	-1.15	1.01	27.72
岷县	2.04	-0.15	-12.30^**	86.24

案例区	气候因子	生长期/d		气象产量/(g/m²)
案例区	气候因子	R	P	R	P
敦煌	日均温/℃	-0.59^**	0.00	-0.20	0.45
	≥0℃积温/(℃/d)	0.66^**	0.00	0.54^*	0.03
	最高气温/℃	-0.40^*	0.04	-0.08	0.77
	最低气温/℃	-0.43^*	0.02	0.12	0.66
	降水量/mm	0.05	0.80	0.51^*	0.04
	日照时数/h	0.65^**	0.00	0.28	0.28
	≥30℃天数	0.07	0.71	-0.21	0.43
武威	日均温/℃	-0.77^**	0.00	-0.13	0.52
	≥0℃积温/℃	-0.13	0.44	0.16	0.41
	最高气温/℃	-0.53^**	0.00	-0.14	0.49
	最低气温/℃	-0.36^*	0.03	-0.23	0.26
	降水量/mm	0.27	0.11	0.02	0.93
	日照时数/h	0.17	0.33	-0.09	0.67
	≥30℃天数	0.28	0.10	-0.41^*	0.03
定西	日均温/℃	-0.33	0.06	0.05	0.82
	≥0℃积温/℃	0.33	0.06	0.09	0.70
	最高气温/℃	-0.13	0.48	0.09	0.69
	最低气温/℃	-0.23	0.21	-0.25	0.26
	降水量/mm	0.74^**	0.00	0.39^*	0.04
	日照时数/h	0.22	0.22	-0.11	0.62
临夏	日均温/℃	-0.67^**	0.00	0.22	0.27
	≥0℃积温/℃	0.04	0.84	0.17	0.41
	最高气温/℃	-0.38^*	0.02	-0.18	0.38
	最低气温/℃	-0.42^*	0.01	0.30	0.14
	降水量/mm	0.33	0.05	0.08	0.72
	日照时数/h	-0.10	0.55	-0.42^*	0.03
岷县	日均温/℃	-0.72^**	0.00	0.43	0.08
	≥0℃积温/℃	0.58^*	0.01	-0.04	0.89
	最高气温/℃	-0.64^*	0.01	0.04	0.89
	最低气温/℃	-0.08	0.78	-0.20	0.46
	降水量/mm	0.61^*	0.01	-0.19	0.44
	日照时数/h	-0.27	0.28	0.41	0.09

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