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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2023, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (32): 115-123.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2022-0874

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于MaxEnt模型对2种青兰属植物在未来气候变化下潜在分布的预测研究

史柠瑞1(), 朱珠1,2(), 王艳莉1,2   

  1. 1 甘肃农业大学林学院，兰州 730070
    2 甘肃省枸杞无害化栽培工程研究中心，兰州 730070
  • 收稿日期:2022-10-14 修回日期:2022-12-23 出版日期:2023-11-15 发布日期:2023-11-10
  • 通讯作者: 朱珠，女，1989年出生，河北沧州人，讲师，博士，主要从事园林植物资源利用方面的研究。通信地址：730070 甘肃省兰州市安宁区营门村1号 甘肃农业大学林学院，E-mail：zhuz@gsau.edu.cn。
  • 作者简介:

    史柠瑞，男，1998年出生，甘肃白银人，硕士在读，研究方向：园林植物与应用。通信地址：730070 甘肃省兰州市安宁区营门村1号 甘肃农业大学林学院，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    甘肃省林业和草原局林草科技创新与合作项目“甘肃省野生植物引种抗旱性评价及相关配置技术研究”(kjcx2021004); 甘肃省青年科技基金计划项目(20JR5RA007)

Potential Distribution Prediction of Two Species of Dracocephalum L. Under Future Climate Change Based on MaxEnt Model

SHI Ningrui1(), ZHU Zhu1,2(), WANG Yanli1,2   

  1. 1 College of Forestry, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070
    2 Wolfbeery Harmless Cultivation Engineering Research Center of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730070
  • Received:2022-10-14 Revised:2022-12-23 Published-:2023-11-15 Online:2023-11-10

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摘要：

为探究限制青兰属植物的主导环境因子，模拟其在不同气候环境下的潜在分布区域，从而为青兰属植物在物种的科学保护及开发利用提供理论依据。基于2种药用价值较高的青兰属植物甘青青兰(Dracocephalum tanguticum)和白花枝子花(Dracocephalum heterophyllum)的地理分布信息及环境因子，采用MaxEnt模型对2种青兰属植物的主导环境因子进行分析，并预测2种青兰属植物当前及未来的适生区域。结果表明：海拔是影响2种青兰属植物分布的关键环境因子，其贡献率分别为51.4%、73.7%，2种植物分布最适宜海拔范围分别为3028.63~4414.68 m和2940.13~4703.83 m。在当前气候环境下，2种植物适生区面积分别占中国面积的10.27%和26.57%，中高适生区主要分布在西藏、青海、甘肃、四川等省份。预测得出2种植物在未来的分布均出现了向高海拔地区迁移的趋势，高适生区仍以喜马拉雅山、青海湖周边和青藏川三省交界处的多山地带为主。因此，预测气候变化对2种青兰属植物分布的影响，有助于日后对植物保护区划分和人工种植地的选择提供参考依据，从而保护植物种质资源，达到可持续发展的目的。

关键词: 甘青青兰, 白花枝子花, MaxEnt模型, 潜在分布区, 气候变化

Abstract:

In order to provide a theoretical basis for scientific protection and utilization of Dracocephalum L., the dominant environmental factors that limit the survivability of Dracocephalum L. were discussed and the potential distribution areas of them under different climatic environments were simulated. Based on the information of geographical distribution and environmental factors of Dracocephalum tanguticum and Dracocephalum heterophyllum which have highly medicinal value, the dominant environmental factors were analyzed by the MaxEnt model of these two species, and the suitable growth areas for them under current and future climate were predicted. The results showed that altitude was the key environmental factor affecting the distribution of the two species, with the contribution rates of 51.4% and 73.7%, respectively. The most suitable ranges for the distribution of the two species were 3028.63~4414.68 m and 2940.13~4703.83 m. The percentages of the suitable areas of the two species were 10.27% and 26.57% in China under current climate environment, and the medium-high suitable area were mainly distributed in Tibet, Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan and other provinces. It was predicted that the distribution of the two species would migrate to the high-altitude areas in the future, and the highly suitable areas would still be mainly around the Himalayas, Qinghai Lake, and the mountainous zone of junction of Tibet, Qinghai, and Sichuan provinces. Therefore, the prediction of the effects of climate change on the distribution of the two species of Dracocephalum L. is helpful to provide reference for the division of plant reserve and the selection of artificial planting sites in the future, so as to protect plant germplasm resources and achieve the purpose of sustainable development.

Key words: Dracocephalum tanguticum, Dracocephalum heterophyllum, MaxEnt model, the potential distribution, climate change