中国两大苹果主产区积冷量时空变化特征

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0301

中国农学通报 ›› 2024, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (9): 106-116.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0301

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤 • 上一篇下一篇

中国两大苹果主产区积冷量时空变化特征

邱美娟¹(), 刘布春²(), 刘园², 王一舟³

¹ 天津农学院农学与资源环境学院，天津 300384
² 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所，北京 100081
³ 中国地震局地质研究所，北京 100029

收稿日期:2023-04-23 修回日期:2024-01-16 出版日期:2024-03-25 发布日期:2024-03-22
通讯作者:
刘布春，女，1968年出生，内蒙古巴彦淖尔人，研究员，博士生导师，博士，主要从事农业减灾和农业灾害风险管理方面的研究。通信地址：100081 北京市海淀区中关村南大街12号中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所，E-mail：liubuchuan@caas.cn。
作者简介:
邱美娟，女，1987年出生，辽宁庄河人，讲师，博士，主要从事农业气象灾害和农业气象产量预测方面的研究。通信地址：300384 天津市西青区津静路22号天津农学院，E-mail：qmjcams@163.com。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1502800); 中国农业科学院科技创新工程(CAAS−ASTIP−2014−IEDA)

Spatial-temporal Variation Characteristics of Chill Accumulation in Two Major Apple Production Areas in China

QIU Meijuan¹(), LIU Buchun²(), LIU Yuan², WANG Yizhou³

¹ College of Agronomy and Resources and Environment, Tianjin Agricultural University, Tianjin 300384
² Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081
³ Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029

Received:2023-04-23 Revised:2024-01-16 Published:2024-03-25 Online:2024-03-22

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

落叶果树需要一定的低温累积才能打破休眠，正常开花结果。研究苹果主产区积冷量变化情况，为苹果安全生产提供参考依据。利用中国黄土高原和环渤海湾地区两大苹果主产区34个气象站1961—2017年逐日气温数据，基于国际上常用的0~7.2℃、犹他、正犹他、改进的犹他和动力学等5种模型，计算两大苹果主产区积冷量，分析对比其时空变化特征及影响因素，以及未来果树生产的安全性。5种模型得到的积冷量空间上具有相同的分布特征，均呈南高北低。最高值位于山东省青岛，分别为1717CH、1690CU、1730CU、1576CU和76CP，最低值位于河北省围场，分别为533CH、423CU、426CU、390CU和29CP；时间上，大多数站点近56年均呈显著增加趋势(P<0.05)；与冬季气温普遍呈显著的正相关关系(P<0.05)；与纬度均呈极显著的负相关关系(P<0.01)，并且在纬度、经度和海拔高度3个影响因子中，纬度对积冷量的贡献最大，其次是海拔高度。在气候变化背景下，当前区域仍然有利于苹果树的安全稳定生产。

关键词: 落叶果树, 苹果, 积冷量, 犹他模型, 动力学模型, 气候变化

Abstract:

Deciduous fruit trees require a certain low temperature accumulation to break dormancy before flowering and fruiting normally. The objective of this paper was to study the characteristic and variation of chill accumulation in main apple producing areas in China, so as to provide a reference for the safe production of apple. Based on the daily temperature data of 34 meteorological stations in two major apple-producing areas in China from 1961-2017 and five international commonly used chill models i.e. 0-7.2℃ model, Utah model, Positive Utah model, Modified Utah model and Dynamic model, we calculated chill accumulation in the two major apple-producing areas. And then the spatial-temporal variation characteristics and influencing factors of chill accumulation were analyzed and compared. We also pointed out the similarities and differences between the models, as well as the safety of future fruit tree production. The results showed that the chill accumulations obtained by the five models had nearly the consistent spatial distribution characteristic, which was high in the south and low in the north of the study area. For the 0-7.2℃,Utah, Positive Utah, Modified Utah and Dynamic models respectively, the highest values were 1717CH, 1690CU, 1730CU, 1576CU and 76 CP in Qingdao, Shandong Province, and the lowest values were 533CH, 423CU, 426CU, 390CU and 29CP in Weichang, Hebei Province. Linear trend analysis showed that the chill accumulation of all the sites had an increasing trend (P<0.05). And correlation analysis also showed that the chill accumulation had positive correlation with mean winter temperature (P<0.05), while they were negatively correlated with latitude (P<0.01). Multiple regression analysis indicated that, among the three influencing factors of latitude, longitude and altitude, latitude contributed most to chill accumulation, followed by altitude, while the chill accumulations were insensitive to the change of longitude. In the context of climate change, the current region is still conducive to the safe and stable production of apple fruit trees. Although the results of the five models are not significantly different, it is still necessary to use multi-model to analyze and study the chill accumulation in order to avoid the influence of the instability factors in the context of climate change.

Key words: deciduous fruit trees, apple, chill accumulation, utah model, dynamic model, climate change

邱美娟, 刘布春, 刘园, 王一舟. 中国两大苹果主产区积冷量时空变化特征[J]. 中国农学通报, 2024, 40(9): 106-116.

QIU Meijuan, LIU Buchun, LIU Yuan, WANG Yizhou. Spatial-temporal Variation Characteristics of Chill Accumulation in Two Major Apple Production Areas in China[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2024, 40(9): 106-116.

图/表 8

图1. 研究区域及站点分布

图2. 5种模型平均积冷量（左）及积冷量变异系数（右）空间分布

图3. 5种模型平均积冷量Mann-Kendal检验

图4. 5种模型积冷量线性趋势（左：1961—2016年；右：1981—2016年）

图5. 5种模型冬季气温每变化1℃积冷量的线性趋势

	0~7.2℃		犹他		正犹他		改进的犹他		动力学
	56年	36年	56年	36年	56年	36年	56年	36年	56年	36年
纬度	-0.747^**	-0.730^**	-0.742^**	-0.725^**	-0.761^**	-0.747^**	-0.744^**	-0.728^**	-0.669^**	-0.659^**
经度	-0.095	-0.077	-0.085	-0.066	-0.124	-0.109	-0.091	-0.072	0.008	0.011
海拔	-0.188	-0.209	-0.207	-0.225	-0.191	-0.109	-0.206	-0.225	-0.264	-0.275

表1. 平均积冷量与经纬度和海拔高度的相关系数

图6. 平均积冷量与纬度（左）、经度（中）和海拔高度（右）的线性回归

图7. 平均积冷量与纬度、经度和海拔高度之间的多元线性回归 a代表0~7.2℃模型，b代表犹他模型，c代表正犹他模型，d代表改进的犹他模型，e代表动力学模型

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中国两大苹果主产区积冷量时空变化特征

Spatial-temporal Variation Characteristics of Chill Accumulation in Two Major Apple Production Areas in China

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