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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2024, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (11): 78-83.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0413

所属专题： 小麦； 农业气象

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

陇东塬区春季气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响评估

张红妮(), 李祥科, 张洪芬, 张天峰, 周忠文, 车可   

  1. 庆阳市气象局，甘肃庆阳 745000
  • 收稿日期:2023-05-31 修回日期:2023-11-21 出版日期:2024-04-11 发布日期:2024-04-11
  • 作者简介:

    张红妮，女，1966年出生，甘肃正宁人，副高级工程师，本科，主要从事农业气象观测和试验研究工作。通信地址：745000 甘肃省庆阳市西峰区兰州路14号 甘肃省庆阳市气象局，Tel：0934-5926088，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    庆阳市气象局气象科研项目“陇东塬区春季气候变化对冬小麦生长及产量的影响评估”(QY2023-10); 庆阳市科技重大专项计划项目 “气候变化对陇东粮食安全的影响及应对”(QY-STK-2022A-071); 中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所和辽宁省农业气象灾害重点实验室联合开放基金项目“陇东气候过渡区季节气候异常对旱作玉米的影响与评估”(2023SYIAEKFMS19); 庆阳市科学技术局项目“气象因子对陇东苹果病虫害发生的影响及预测预报研究”(QY-STK-2023A-082)

Assessment of Impact of Spring Climate Change on Winter Wheat Yield in Longdong Loess Plateau Area

ZHANG Hongni(), LI Xiangke, ZHANG Hongfen, ZHANG Tianfeng, ZHOU Zhongwen, CHE Ke   

  1. Qingyang Meteorological Bureau, Qingyang, Gansu 745000
  • Received:2023-05-31 Revised:2023-11-21 Published:2024-04-11 Online:2024-04-11

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摘要：

为研究世界最大黄土塬面“董志塬”腹地的陇东塬区典型代表区域——庆阳市西峰区春季气候变化对冬小麦产量形成的影响，利用1985—2020年春季平均气温、降水量、日照时数距平和冬小麦产量资料，分析了春季气候变化特征及其对冬小麦产量形成的丰歉及利弊影响。结果表明，春季平均气温距平随年代增加呈极显著上升趋势，上升速率为1.04℃/10a，增温幅度远高于全球和全国平均水平；降水量距平百分率呈波动减少趋势，减少速率为2.72 mm/10a；日照时数距平百分率呈增加趋势，增加速率为2.45 h/10a；冬小麦产量呈增加趋势，增加速率每10 a为470.14 kg/hm2。用气候产量的丰歉反映冬小麦关键生育期气候资源与其产量形成的匹配程度，36年来匹配较好的丰产年占58%，歉产年占42%；气象条件有利于冬小麦产量形成的年份占53%，不利年份占47%。研究结果可以根据气候变化指导该地区作物布局及农业生产，趋利避害，对促进冬小麦提质增产具有一定的积极作用。

关键词: 春季气候, 变化特征, 冬小麦气候产量, 影响分析与评估

Abstract:

To study the impact of spring climate change on winter wheat yield in the representative area of Longdong loess plateau, the Xifeng district of Qingyang city, utilizing the data on the average temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours in spring and winter wheat yield from 1985 to 2020, the characteristics of spring climate change and its impact on winter wheat yield formation were analyzed. The results showed that the spring average temperature anomaly increased significantly with the years, with a rising rate of 1.04℃ per decade, which was much higher than the global and national average levels. The precipitation anomaly percentage showed a fluctuating decreasing trend, with a decreasing rate of 2.72 mm per decade. The sunshine hours anomaly percentage showed an increasing trend, with an increasing rate of 2.45 h per decade. The winter wheat yield showed an increasing trend, with an increasing rate of 470.14 kg/hm2 per decade. The match between the climate resources in the critical growth period of winter wheat and its yield formation was reflected by the abundance or scarcity of the climate yield. Over the 36 years, the abundance of production years with good matching accounted for 58%, and the scarcity of production years accounted for 42%. The years with meteorological conditions favorable for winter wheat yield formation accounted for 53%, and unfavorable years accounted for 47%. The research results can guide crop layout and agricultural production in the region according to climate change, seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, and play positive role in promoting the quality and production of winter wheat.

Key words: spring climate, change characteristics, winter wheat climate yield, impact analysis and evaluation