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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2023, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (24): 90-95.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2022-0748

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国粮食主产区低温灾害变化趋势和变化周期的研究

田志会1(), 牟东明2, 李光2, 李晓雪1   

  1. 1 北京农学院园林学院，北京 102206
    2 山东省聊城市农业农村发展服务中心，山东聊城 252000
  • 收稿日期:2022-08-29 修回日期:2022-12-02 出版日期:2023-08-25 发布日期:2023-08-23
  • 作者简介:

    田志会，女，1968年出生，天津人，副教授，博士，研究方向：农业气象学。通信地址：102206 北京市昌平区史各庄街道北农路7号 北京农学院园林学院，Tel：010-80796710，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划“粮食主产区主要气象灾变过程及其减灾保产调控关键技术”(2017YFD0300400)

Research on the Variation Trend and Cycle of Low Temperature Disasters in China’s Major Grain Producing Areas

TIAN Zhihui1(), MOU Dongming2, LI Guang2, LI Xiaoxue1   

  1. 1 Department of Landscape Design ＆ Forestry, Beijing University of Agriculture, Beijing 102206
    2 Agricultural and Rural Development Service Center of Liaocheng, Shandong Province, Liaocheng, Shandong 252000
  • Received:2022-08-29 Revised:2022-12-02 Online:2023-08-25 Published:2023-08-23

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摘要：

基于粮食主产区1971—2016年低温灾害农作物受灾率，采用Mann-Kendall (M-K)趋势检验法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法以及经验模态分解法(EMD)对中国粮食主产区低温灾害变化趋势和变化周期进行分析，以期为降低粮食主产区低温灾害风险及灾害损失提供理论依据。结果表明：（1）低温灾害农作物受灾率增加趋势显著的省份包括：湖南、湖北、江西、四川、安徽、河南和山东省。（2）低温灾害农作物受灾率突变时间主要发生在20世纪80年代末期、90年代初期及90年代末期，增加趋势显著期主要发生在20世纪90年代末期至21世纪初期。（3）低温灾害的发生表现为准3年、准6年、准11年和准24年周期，但主要是以准3年为波动周期。

关键词: 粮食主产区, 低温灾害, 受灾率, 趋势, 周期

Abstract:

Based on the crop disaster rate of low-temperature disaster in major grain producing areas from 1971 to 2016, the variation trend and cycle of low temperature disaster were analyzed by Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend test, Mann-Kendall mutation test and empirical mode decomposition (EMD), so as to provide a theoretical basis for reducing the risk and loss of low-temperature disasters in major grain producing areas. The results showed that: (1) the crop disaster rate of low-temperature disaster had a significant increasing trend in Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Sichuan, Anhui, Henan and Shandong Provinces. (2) The mutation time of crop disaster rate of low- temperature disaster mainly occurred in the late 1980s, the early 1990s and the late 1990s. The period of significant increasing trend mainly occurred from late 1990s to early 21st century. (3) Low temperature disasters had the characteristics of quasi-3 years, quasi-6 years, quasi 11 years and quasi-24-year periods. However, it was mainly based on the quasi-3 years as the main fluctuation cycle.

Key words: major grain producing areas, low temperature disaster, disaster rate, trend, cycle