气候变化下草地贪夜蛾在云南省的潜在分布格局变化研究

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2022-0943

中国农学通报 ›› 2023, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (33): 119-127.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2022-0943

气候变化下草地贪夜蛾在云南省的潜在分布格局变化研究

袁煜林¹(), 吕建平², 高一心¹, 邓忠坚¹(), 张媛¹()

¹ 西南林业大学生物多样性保护学院/云南省森林灾害预警与控制重点实验室，昆明 650224
² 云南省植保植检站，昆明 650034

收稿日期:2022-11-15 修回日期:2023-03-18 出版日期:2023-11-25 发布日期:2023-11-22
通讯作者: 邓忠坚，男，1979年出生，广西贵港人，高级实验师，博士，主要从事地理信息系统研究工作。通信地址：650224 云南省昆明市盘龙区白龙寺300号，E-mail：43946916@qq.com。张媛，女，1983年出生，贵州黔西南州人，副研究员，博士，主要从事昆虫生态学及植物保护相关研究工作。通信地址：650224 云南省昆明市盘龙区白龙寺300号，E-mail：zygogo@163.com。
作者简介:
袁煜林，男，1992年出生，广东河源人，在读研究生，研究方向：资源利用与植物保护。通信地址：650224 云南省昆明市盘龙区白龙寺300号，E-mail：379242946@qq.com。
基金资助:
云南省森林灾害预警与控制重点实验室开放基金资助“气候变化背景下草地贪夜蛾在云南省分布变化模型模拟及经济损失评估”(ZKJS-S-202203); 云南省环境保护专项项目资助“迪庆州外来入侵物种调查评估与监测预警”(632108); “兴滇英才支持计划”青年人才专项资助(XDYC-QNRC-2022-0207)

Predication of Potential Distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda ( J. E. Smith) in Yunnan Province under Climate Change

YUAN Yulin¹(), LV Jianping², GAO Yixin¹, DENG Zhongjian¹(), ZHANG Yuan¹()

¹ Faculty of Biodiversity Conservation, Southwest Forestry University/Key Laboratory of Forest Disaster Warning and Control of Yunnan Province, Kunming 650224
² Yunnan Plant Protection and Quarantine Station, Kunming 650034

Received:2022-11-15 Revised:2023-03-18 Published-:2023-11-25 Online:2023-11-22

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

旨在为农业部门开展草地贪夜蛾的防控以及政策制定提供科学参考。通过系统收集草地贪夜蛾在云南省的分布点，并结合野外调查数据，采用MaxEnt模型及ArcGIS软件，结合当前及CMIP5未来气候，对云南省草地贪夜蛾潜在分布进行分析。结果表明：模型模拟的AUC值为0.903，表明MaxEnt模型具有较高的准确性，影响草地贪夜蛾的4个最重要环境变量为：年均气温、最高气温、海拔与坡度。在当前状态下，适生区总面积为27.12万km²，占云南省总面积的68.83%。在2050年的RCP 2.6和RCP 8.5情景下，潜在适生区面积分别比当前扩张13.92%和16.35%；在2070年的RCP 2.6和RCP 8.5情景下，适生区面积比当前分别扩张16.65%和16.25%。基于未来气候变化的预测显示，草地贪夜蛾在云南省的适生区面积明显扩大，适生区有向高纬度和向高海拔地区扩散的趋势，气候变化导致危害的风险增大，应密切监控虫灾严重区域及新发地的虫情发展，并进一步加大对该种入侵农业害虫的研究和防治力度。

关键词: 草地贪夜蛾, MaxEnt模型, 气候变化, 分布格局, 风险防控, 云南省

Abstract:

The study will provide scientific reference for agricultural sectors to carry out the prevention and control of Spodoptera frugiperda and policy-making. By systematically collecting the distribution points of S. frugiperda in Yunnan Province, combined with our field survey data, the potential distribution of S. frugiperda in Yunnan province was analyzed with the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software in combination with current and future climate of CMIP5. The results showed that the AUC value simulated by the model was 0.903, indicating that the MaxEnt model had high accuracy in simulating the potentially suitable area for S. frugiperda. The four most important environmental variables affecting S. frugiperda were average annual temperature, max temperature of the warmest month, altitude, and slope. In the current state, the total suitable area was 271200 km², accounting for 68.83% of the total area of Yunnan Province. Under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in 2050, the potential total suitable area would expand by 13.92% and 16.35%, respectively. Under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in 2070, the suitable area would expand by 16.65% and 16.25%, respectively, compared to the current level. Predictions based on future climate change showed that the potential suitable areas for S. frugiperda in Yunnan Province would be obviously expanded, and there was a trend of spreading to the high latitude and altitude areas. Our results suggest that the climate change may result in the risk of continuous spread and harm increasing. Therefore, more efforts should be made to study and control this invasive agricultural pest, and close attention should be paid to the development of S. frugiperda situation in the severely affected areas and new areas.

Key words: Spodoptera frugiperda, MaxEnt model, climate change, distribution, risk control, Yunnan Province

袁煜林, 吕建平, 高一心, 邓忠坚, 张媛. 气候变化下草地贪夜蛾在云南省的潜在分布格局变化研究[J]. 中国农学通报, 2023, 39(33): 119-127.

YUAN Yulin, LV Jianping, GAO Yixin, DENG Zhongjian, ZHANG Yuan. Predication of Potential Distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda ( J. E. Smith) in Yunnan Province under Climate Change[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2023, 39(33): 119-127.

图/表 7

类别	代码	变量
气候变量	bio1	年均气温
	bio5	最高气温
	bio6	最低气温
	bio8	最湿季平均温度
	bio10	最暖季平均温度
	bio11	最冷季平均温度
地形变量	alt	海拔
	sl	坡度
	asp	坡向

表1. 模型构建使用的环境变量

图1. MaxEnt模型预测结果的ROC曲线

代号	贡献百分率/%	置换重要性/%
bio1	21.8	18.7
bio5	12.4	13
bio6	1.3	10.5
bio8	2.8	0.5
bio10	4.6	2
bio11	3.8	1.1
alt	34.3	38.6
sl	13.8	10.7
asp	5.2	4.9

表2. 9个环境变量贡献率和排列重要性

图2. 基于刀切法检验评价环境变量重要性

图3. 影响草地贪夜蛾适生区的4个重要环境变量的响应曲线 A：年均气温；B：最高气温；C：海拔；D：坡度

图4. MaxEnt模型预测草地贪夜蛾当前和未来的潜在适生区 A：当前适生区；B：2050年RCP 2.6；C：2050年RCP 8.5；D：2070年RCP 2.6；E：2070年RCP 8.5 审图号：GS(2020)3183号

图5. 云南省草地贪夜蛾当前和未来的潜在适生区面积变化

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气候变化下草地贪夜蛾在云南省的潜在分布格局变化研究

Predication of Potential Distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda ( J. E. Smith) in Yunnan Province under Climate Change

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