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中国农学通报 ›› 2012, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (8): 271-275.

所属专题: 现代农业发展与乡村振兴

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于信息扩散理论的东北三省农业洪灾风险评估

庞西磊 黄崇福 艾福利   

  • 收稿日期:2011-09-08 修回日期:2011-11-18 出版日期:2012-03-15 发布日期:2012-03-15

Risk Assessment on Agricultural Flood of Northeast China Based on Information Diffusion Theory

  • Received:2011-09-08 Revised:2011-11-18 Online:2012-03-15 Published:2012-03-15

摘要:

为了解决农业洪涝灾害风险评估时常会遇到的小样本问题,采用正态信息扩散方法,将单值观测样本点转化为集值样本点,进行了东北三省的区域农业洪涝灾害风险评估,并利用ArcGIS平台制成了该区域的农业洪灾风险图,直观地展示了东北地区农业洪灾风险的空间分布和空间变化趋势。该结果为政府的减灾和应急管理以及保险公司的农业灾害保险方案规划提供借鉴。

关键词: 影响因素, 影响因素

Abstract:

In order to solve the difficulty of using rare sample for risk assessment on agricultural flood, normal information diffusion method is adopted to assess the regional agricultural flood risk of northeast China by transferring the single value sample to set sample. It makes a series of agricultural flood risk map and shows the agricultural flood risk distribution in northeast China. It also makes out the spatial changing trend of the flood risk as the magnitude of flood disaster increasing. The research will provide some useful decision-making information for the disaster reduction and emergency management departments. Meanwhile, it is also meaningful for determining the agricultural disaster insurance rates for the insurance companies.

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