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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (6): 251-257.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb14100122

所属专题： 现代农业发展与乡村振兴

• 三农研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于岭回归模型的农村剩余劳动力转移影响因素分析

朱亚东1,2,杨宁生2   

  1. (1上海海洋大学经济管理学院,上海 201306；2中国水产科学研究院(院部）信息研究中心,北京 100141）
  • 收稿日期:2014-10-28 修回日期:2014-12-24 接受日期:2014-12-25 出版日期:2015-03-20 发布日期:2015-03-20
  • 通讯作者: 杨宁生
  • 基金资助:
    上海海洋大学研究生科研基金“农村城镇化进程中劳动力转移研究”(A1-0209-14-0900-142)。

Analysis of the Transfer of Rural Surplus Labor Force Based on Ridge Regression Model

Zhu Yadong1,2, Yang Ningsheng2   

  1. (1College of Economic and Management, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306; 2Central Department of Information Research Center, CAFS, Beijing 100141)
  • Received:2014-10-28 Revised:2014-12-24 Accepted:2014-12-25 Online:2015-03-20 Published:2015-03-20

摘要： 为更好的解释农村剩余劳动力转移的影响因素，在国内外农村剩余劳动力研究的基础上，笔者运用定性和定量相结合的分析方法进行分析。为避免多重共线性在模型中的影响，采用岭回归模型对相应影响变量进行分析。通过模型综合分析，验证了影响中国农村剩余劳动力转移的推动因素和制约因素。同时提出发展区域经济，提高农民收入；推进城镇化进程，拓宽农民就业渠道；促进二、三产业发展转型与加强农民专业培训齐头并进；深化以户籍制度为中心的制度变革等4项政策建议。

关键词: 农民合作组织, 农民合作组织, 比较, 启示

Abstract: In order to explain the factors which affecting the transfer of rural surplus labor better, the author used qualitative and quantitative methods to analyze the factors based on the relevant research literature. Ridge regression model was used to avoid the effect of collinearity. Effects of promote factors and restrictive factors were verified through the analysis. Then the author put forward four policy suggestions which were promoting regional economic development and improving farmers’ income; accelerating the process of urbanization and broadening employment channels for farmers; promoting the transition of the second and third industry and strengthening the training of farmers’ professional skills; deepening the system reform, particularly in household registration system.