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中国农学通报 ›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (18): 103-115.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16060114

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

江西近55年秋季降水时空分布及异常环流特征分析

阙志萍,吴 凡,吴菲菲,马锋敏   

  1. 江西省气象服务中心,南昌,330029,江西省气象服务中心,南昌,330029,江西省南昌市气象局,南昌,330038,江西省气候中心,南昌,330029
  • 收稿日期:2016-06-22 修回日期:2016-12-19 接受日期:2016-12-23 出版日期:2017-06-28 发布日期:2017-06-28
  • 通讯作者: 吴 凡
  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局预报员专项“南昌821 短历时大暴雨研究”(CMAYBY2013-036)。

Autumn Precipitation in Jiangxi: Temporal and Spatial Distribution and Anomaly Circulation Features in Recent 55 Years

  • Received:2016-06-22 Revised:2016-12-19 Accepted:2016-12-23 Online:2017-06-28 Published:2017-06-28

摘要: 为了研究江西近55年秋季(9-11月)降水的时间空分布及其异常环流形势特征,利用1961-2015年共55年86个气象站逐日降水资料及NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料,采用EOF、REOF分析、Morlet小波分析、趋势分析、M-K突变检验和合成分析等方法,研究了江西近55年秋季降水的时间变化规律、空间分布特征及旱涝年的环流特征。结果表明:近55年来江西秋季降水呈弱增长趋势,在1981年、1984年和1987年发生突变,存在12-14年和2-4年的周期。空间场可分为全省一致型,南-北相反型和南北-中部相反型,其中全省一致型为主要空间分布形式。江西秋季降水可分为5个区域:一区(赣北中西部)、三区(赣中西部)和五区(赣中中东部)秋季降水长期变化呈增多趋势,二区(赣南)秋季降水长期变化呈减少趋势;四区(赣东北)秋季降水变化趋势较为稳定。五个区域秋季降水都存在2-4年左右的周期变化,还有多个区域都存在4-6年左右的周期变化,最长周期为14年左右。此外,江西秋季旱年,欧洲东部500hPa的大槽加强,江西850hPa处东北风距平中,降水偏少;反之,降水偏多。

关键词: 欧洲云杉, 欧洲云杉, 氮素, 根系形态, 生物量, 含氮量

Abstract: Based on the daily precipitation data of 86 stations in Jiangxi and the NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data from 1961 to 2015, the Temporal and spatial distribution of autumn precipitation and anomaly circulation features in Jiangxi in the latest 55 years were analyzed by using the EOF, REOF, Morlet wavelet, linear trend, Mann-Kendall analysis and composite analysis methods. The results show that: the autumn precipitation in Jiangxi presented an upward tendency during the 55 years. Abrupt changes appeared in 1981, 1984 and 1987, respectively. There were a long changing period of 12-14 and a short changing period of 2-4 years. The space filed of autumn precipitation in Jiangxi was divided into the overall consistency, the south-north inverting type and the south with north-middle inverting type, and the generally consistent type was the main form of it. Spatially, it could be subdivided into the following five regions: mid-west of north Jiangxi, south of Jiangxi, west of central Jiangxi, east of north Jiangxi and mid-east of central Jiangxi. Autumn precipitation was increasing in mid-west of north Jiangxi, west of central Jiangxi and mid-east of central Jiangxi, while decreasing in south of Jiangxi, and stable in mid-east of central Jiangxi. Different times of abrupt changes appeared in all five regions during the 55 years in different years, and abrupt changes appeared in early 1960s in the region of south of Jiangxi, west of central Jiangxi, and east of north Jiangxi. There was a changing period of 2-4 years in all the five regions and a changing period of 4-6 years in several regions. The longest changing period was 14 years. In addition, the circulation features of flood years and drought years showed that when the trough in the east of Europe at 500 hPa became stronger, and Jiangxi Province was controlled by northwest wind, besides, northeast anomaly wind at 850 hPa controlled Jiangxi and weak southwest anomaly wind appeared over Jiang-Huai Basin resulting in precipitation in autumn less than that in the same period of normal years in drought years of Jiangxi. The circulation pattern were contrary to the patterns mentioned above in flood years of Jiangxi resulting in precipitation in autumn more than that in the same period of normal years.