Abstract:

In order to explore sustainable agricultural development capabilities and future trends rules in ethnic minority areas which is agriculture-based regions, taking Qiandongnan Miao and Dong Autonomous Prefecture (Qiandongnan) for example, sustainable development index system of agriculture was built by fully integrated characteristics of the agricultural and economic development in Qiandongnan Miao and Dong Autonomous Prefecture (Qiandongnan). The principal component analysis (PCA) method was used to quantitatively analyze the status of sustainable development of agriculture, and then the GM (1,1) model was used to predict the trend of agricultural sustainable development in Qiandongnan. The results showed that, the development trends of agricultural economic subsystem, agricultural production subsystem and agricultural society subsystem were the similar with the total agricultural sustainable development, increased year by year between 2000-2009, but the agricultural resources and environment subsystem declined and sustainability was below the average level since 2003. It means that with the development of the agricultural economy, production and society, the pressure on the agricultural resources and environment was growing, so further development will likely face the serious shortages of resources and constraints of environmental degradation. The predicted results passed the posterior-variance-test and residual analysis by gray modeling method and showed high precision, these results includes the average relative error of calculation is 0.062, C=0.2169, P=1. The prediction revealed that, keep comprehensive capacity of agriculture on rising, but only increased 5.07 times for the next 11 years. It showed that, a certain number of problems still exist in development of agriculture in this region and we should taken some measures to solve it. Quantitative analysis and predicted results in order to provide scientific basis and direction for agriculture development in Qiandongnan and references for agricultural policy makers in the government.