Apple Orchards in Shaanxi Under Measures Based on GM(1,1) Model: Prediction and Analysis of Fertilizer Consumption

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb20190500199

Abstract

Abstract:

The paper aims to identify reasonable measures to optimize the allocation of fertilizer resources and reduce the fertilizer consumption in orchards. We predicted the amount of fertilizer applied in apple orchards in Shaanxi based on GM(1,1) model combined with the current fertilization situation and nutrient efficient management measures. The results showed that: according to the model prediction, the consumption of pure nutrients N, P₂O₅ and K₂O in apple orchards in Shaanxi would reach 872800, 552900 and 386400 t, respectively, in 2025, 74.3% more than the current amount; if the recommended fertilization could be carried out in all the orchards by 2025, the amount of fertilizer N, P₂O₅, K₂O would be cut by 362100 t, accounting for 20% of the predicted consumption; when the fertigation area reached 20% of the total planted area in 2025, the amount of N, P₂O₅, K₂O would be cut by 181200 t, accounting for 10% of the total predicted consumption. Therefore, the promotion of recommended fertilization or fertigation in orchards can significantly reduce fertilizer consumption, which is beneficial to the sustainable development of orchards in China.

Key words: GM(1,1) model, apple orchard, recommended fertilization, fertigation, fertilizer consumption, chemical fertilizer reduction

CLC Number:

S146.1

Yang Lili, Hu Fan, Li Shuili, Li Ru, Shi Lei, Tong Yan’an. Apple Orchards in Shaanxi Under Measures Based on GM(1,1) Model: Prediction and Analysis of Fertilizer Consumption[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2020, 36(23): 74-80.

Figures/Tables 5

References 28

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年份	种植面积/(×10⁴ hm²)	氮(N)消耗量/(×10⁴ t)	磷(P₂O₅)消耗量/(×10⁴ t)	钾(K₂O)消耗量/(×10⁴ t)	氮磷钾肥总消耗量/(×10⁴ t)
2005	42.63	31.29	19.82	13.85	64.96
2006	46.22	33.93	21.49	15.02	70.44
2007	48.49	35.59	22.55	15.76	73.9
2008	53.09	38.97	24.69	17.25	80.91
2009	56.49	41.47	26.27	18.36	86.1
2010	60.15	44.15	27.97	19.55	91.67
2011	62.32	45.74	28.98	20.25	94.97
2012	64.52	47.39	30.02	20.98	98.4
2013	66.52	48.83	30.93	21.62	101.38
2014	68.18	50.06	31.71	22.17	103.94

年份	种植面积/(×10⁴ hm²)	氮(N)消耗量/(×10⁴ t)	磷(P₂O₅)消耗量/(×10⁴ t)	钾(K₂O)消耗量/(×10⁴ t)	氮磷钾肥总消耗量/(×10⁴ t)
2005	42.63	31.29	19.82	13.85	64.96
2006	46.22	33.93	21.49	15.02	70.44
2007	48.49	35.59	22.55	15.76	73.9
2008	53.09	38.97	24.69	17.25	80.91
2009	56.49	41.47	26.27	18.36	86.1
2010	60.15	44.15	27.97	19.55	91.67
2011	62.32	45.74	28.98	20.25	94.97
2012	64.52	47.39	30.02	20.98	98.4
2013	66.52	48.83	30.93	21.62	101.38
2014	68.18	50.06	31.71	22.17	103.94

养分种类	过量比例/%	过量投入面积/(×10⁴ hm²)	过量投入量/(×10⁴ t)	不足比例/%	不足投入面积/(×10⁴ hm²)	不足投入量/(×10⁴ t)	过量-不足/(×10⁴ t)
N	72.3	49.29	15.48	11.0	7.51	0.37	15.12
P₂O₅	50.0	34.10	6.20	29.8	20.32	1.73	4.46
K₂O	32.0	21.84	4.82	56.4	38.45	3.63	1.19

养分种类	过量比例/%	过量投入面积/(×10⁴ hm²)	过量投入量/(×10⁴ t)	不足比例/%	不足投入面积/(×10⁴ hm²)	不足投入量/(×10⁴ t)	过量-不足/(×10⁴ t)
N	72.3	49.29	15.48	11.0	7.51	0.37	15.12
P₂O₅	50.0	34.10	6.20	29.8	20.32	1.73	4.46
K₂O	32.0	21.84	4.82	56.4	38.45	3.63	1.19