Abstract:

Based on the disaster theory, this study is designed to research the effects of four extreme weather events (drought, flood, wind & hail and low temperature) on crops in Guangxi from 1978 to 2017 through the trend analysis method of mathematical statistics, so as to reduce the loss of crop yield and economy caused by extreme weather events. In this study, the response frequency of climate factors of extreme weather events was used to approximate the probability of extreme weather occurrence in a certain region. Then, through the damage assessment of the extreme weather events from 1978 to 2017, the temporal and spatial analysis of drought, flood, wind & hail and low temperature disasters in Guangxi was carried out to reveal their temporal and spatial variation trend. The results showed that: (1) in terms of the damage degree to crops, the four disasters were in the order of drought > floods > low temperature > wind & hail; (2) the affected areas and disaster areas of crops caused by drought in Guangxi showed a downward trend, and the severely damaged areas gradually shifted from the central and western regions to the southwest and northeast regions; (3) the affected areas and disaster areas of crops caused by floods showed an increasing trend, and the severely damaged areas gradually shifted from the south to the central and western regions; (4) the damage areas and disaster areas of crops caused by wind & hail disaster showed a downward trend, and the damage areas gradually shifted from the north and south to the central and more south regions; (5) the affected areas and disaster areas of crops caused by low temperature disaster showed an increasing trend, and the damage areas were mainly in the north of Guangxi.

Key words: crops, extreme weather events, disaster situation, damage assessment, temporal spatial analysis, Guangxi